Frank and dollar still under pressure. Euro course without major changes

In anticipation of the Trump-Putin Friday, the listing of the American dollar and the Swiss franc are under the pressure of sellers. The euro exchange rate for zloty remains stable.

On Friday, August 15, a meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States is planned in Alaska. Two leaders are to talk about the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war and probably also about the new division of influence in Europe. There has been speculation on the market for several days that this meeting can lead to the end (or even prolonged suspension) of armed activities in Ukraine. And this in the short run would take off the risk bonus not only for Poland, but also for all of Europe.

It is therefore a factor that weakens the demand for safe assets. Perhaps that is why from the beginning of August we are observing a clear pressure to weaken the Swiss franc, which is a kind of “safe marinade” for global capital. Over the previous two weeks, the EUR/CHF exchange rate increased from less than 0.93 to 0.9420 Frank. The growing EUR/CHF means the weakness of the Helweck currency in relation to the euro.

On Thursday morning, the Swiss Frank on the Polish market cost PLN 4,5236, i.e. 1.5 grosze more than the day before. At the beginning of this week, however, we observed quotas close to PLN 4.50-i.e. the lower restriction of consolidation in the range of PLN 4.50-4.60 lasting for four months. An possible break of the 4.50 PLN line on the basis of technical analysis would announce a decrease in Frank's quotations in the area of 4.40 PLN.

Advertisement

For slightly different reasons, we returned to the trend of depreciation of the American dollar relative to the euro. The dollar was losing because the weaker data from the labor market in combination with the lack of a large negative surprise on the inflation side of CPI intensified expectations for the September reduction of interest rates in the federal reserve. Some speculate up to 50-point cut at the September FOMC meeting.

As a result of such speculation, the EUR/USD exchange rate wandered around USD 1.1680. This year's maximum is located at an altitude of 1.1830 and only the puncture of this level will be confirmed by the binding of the upward trend on the most important currency pair in the world. On our market on Thursday morning the dollar cost PLN 3.6394 and was more expensive than on Wednesday evening. However, these levels are still close to the 4-year minimum at the beginning of the face, when less than PLN 3.59 was paid for “green”.

In all this confusion, the euro-gold couple remains. On Thursday, in the morning of the euro, it was valued at PLN 4.2569. After the gentle weakening of the zloty from the turn of July and August, we returned to the agent of the side trend in force since April. For over 4 months, the EUR/PLN exchange rate has been in the range of PLN 4.20-4.30 after it set a 7-year minimum at the end of February at the end of February at PLN 4.1275.

KK

Source: