Donald Trump said “big progress” is being recorded in the direction of stopping the Ukraine war, after announcing that he is preparing to have a direct meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump/Photo: AFP
But the question that persists is whether, as Trump even suggested in a moment of lucidity about the relationship with Russia, it is not “spoken again.”
The intense frustration that Trump felt towards the Kremlin leader-the one who ruined the ambitions to be seen as a Nobel Prize-seems to have evaporated quickly after his emissary, Steve Witkoff, came out of a three-hour meeting with Putin, on Wednesday, writes CNN.
Trump predicted a summit in just a few weeks and said that there is “very good chances” to reach the “end of this road”.
It is a change of tuna compared to the recent weeks, in which he accused Putin of “disgusting” bombings on Kiev and called him “absolutely crazy” – an unusual language for an American leader who constantly tried to approach Moscow.
Trump acknowledged that he did not reach a “decisive moment” in Moscow, but his optimism seems a little anchored in the reality on the front. Russia's recent attacks with drones and rockets on Ukraine were among the most intense this year. And, after three years of conflict, there is no clear sign that Putin intended to stop the war.
Putin has no real reasons to give up
Ever since he took over in January, Trump has talked about “imminent progress” – including the famous commitment to end the war in 24 hours. But little has internal, economic and strategic reasons much stronger to continue conflict than any stimulant that Trump can offer.
“In Washington, we tend to underestimate how much the regime invested in this war is.”says David Salvo, director of German Marshall Fund and former diplomat. “The survival of the regime, the whole Russian economy, everything is built around the continuation of this conflict.”
A high -stake meeting but with few guarantees
However, successful diplomacy sometimes involves risks. If Trump would even manage to trigger a real process of peace, the impact would be major – for both Ukraine and himself. A direct summit with Putin would be a huge image shot, an opportunity for Trump to demonstrate their negotiator skills, which they often claim.
Trump even suggested a trilateral meeting with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski – the most important diplomatic initiative since the beginning of the invasion.
The Kremlin, however, did not confirm anything official. Moscow prefers long, technical negotiations, which can also be delay tactics. A high -level haste meeting could put pressure on Putin to give Trump a diplomatic “trophy” – such as an agreement to stop air attacks on civilians. But such promises, in the past, have often been worthless.
On the other hand, if there is a break in bombings, it could be a validation for Trump's new strategy – which gave up praises and began to threaten sanctions. Coincidence or not, the “progress” appears on the same day that Trump announced massive taxes on India – an important Russian oil buyer.
Zelenski also seemed slightly optimistic in his Wednesday speech: “It seems that Russia becomes more open to the idea of ceasing fire – pressure works.”
The risks are still high. So does the suspicions.
But every time Trump thought he had a little understanding, he was pulled. Already, in the first seven months of this term, the US president was ignored by Kremlin and put in an embarrassing position. Including he seemed to recognize this, saying on Wednesday: “I still do not know what a little follows. I will tell you in a few weeks. Maybe earlier.”
For Trump, however, a simple meeting could be sold as a victory – even if he does not get anything concrete. Putin could speculate Trump's appetite for spectacular images, historical summits and facade agreements. It would not be the first time: the meetings with Kim Jong have ended without visible results.
A summit with Trump would give Putin the opportunity to reposition himself on the international stage – an isolated leader, but invited to the table of great powers. It would also be a living memory of the Helsinki summit, from Trump's first term, where the US president seemed easily manipulated by the Russian leader.
Former national security counselor John Bolton told CNN: “Putin will see this meeting as an opportunity. He knows that he pushed Trump too far, but he will try to recover the situation in his favor.”
What could Russia offer, concretely?
The question remains: what could Russia offer as “deliverable” by the summit? The US has tried in the past to obtain an agreement on the termination of air attacks – at least to allow the population to leave the shelters. But the chances of a real armistice are low. Russia seems determined to continue the summer offensive, especially in eastern Ukraine.
Another possible strategy: Putin to give Trump something to divert him from Ukraine-maybe discussions about nuclear weapons, a spectacular economic agreement or anything else to feed his transaction instincts.
But Ukraine cannot be ignored. Kiev is extremely cautious in front of any initiative that could resuscitate the old “peace” plans favorable to Moscow – such as keeping the occupied territories and blocking Ukraine's accession to NATO. Moscow has been trying to exploit Trump's skepticism for the war to sow divisions between the US and European allies.
Zelenski was clear: “The key is that no one is fooled by details – neither we nor the United States.”
