In the context of the role of China in Central and Eastern Europe, Radosław Pyffel has no doubt: in the future China will be a key player in peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. “As there will be peace negotiations, in every format of peace negotiations in Ukraine there is talk about China and Turkey is also often spoken of Io India. These are countries that will sit at this negotiating table” – indicates Pyffel, Emphasizing that Poland should influence the Chinese position so that it is not identical to Russian.
Polish-Chinese precedent
According to the expert, this can be done. Radosław Pyffel recalls a specific example of Poland's effective dialogue with China. “President Duda went to Beijing talked for nearly three hours with XI Jinping and then it turned out that some strange accounts ceased the illegal movement on the border with Belarus.” The president awarded the Commander's Cross of the former Chinese ambassador, who later became the representative of the Chinese government for Eurasia. “So there are some possibilities of influence here, only it must be an idea for it” – emphasizes the expert.
Hungarian lesson as a warning
According to the expert, Hungary showed that you can be at the same time “a very good friend of Donald Trump and the largest recipient of Chinese investments in Europe.” “Everyone argued that it was impossible, and Hungary did it. Whether it would be healthy, we'll see it” – comments Pyffel. He pointed out, however, that he would not take an example from Hungary in the context of building relationships with China.
Hungary has actually become the largest recipient of Chinese investments in the EU. On the other hand, the lack of real technology transfer or the actual impact on the potential of the Hungarian economy raises doubts.
The expert definitely refutes the claims about the end of the new silk trail. “This trail, or at least its northern thread, really, these volumes decreased after the war in Ukraine, we have this geopolitical instability, but this network somehow works.”
Pyffel calculates specific benefits from the intensification of trade. “These customs fees if the containers entered through Poland, could give a few percent to the Polish budget“.
Spanish model as an inspiration
As an alternative to the Hungarian model, Radosław Pyffel indicates Spain. “Personally, I think that the Spanish model can be a model for Poland. Spain conducts a pragmatic policy towards China, avoiding both complete subordination and radical breaking of relationships,” he said.
The expert warns against the unilateral activities of Poland. “In my opinion, when it comes to Poland, he will decoupling (commercial disconnection from China – editor's note), and everyone else in Europe will not do it, we will shoot each other,” he said. The EU as a whole conducts the strategy of “de-risting”-risk reduction instead of complete cut off from China.
“It can't be that we will now do everything with China, or we will cut off from China totally. It doesn't make sense at all, especially since others will not do it” – emphasizes Pyffel by recommending Finding a golden mean.
Challenges for the future president
The expert expresses hope for the pragmatic policy of the new president. “I hope that President Nawrocki will try to go in the same direction as President Duda and will have even better ideas of better people and he will do it even more effectively” – he assessed
The key message of the expert is the postulate of implementing the Polish national interest: “Poland First, simply realize this interest, where it is beneficial“At the same time, he warns:” And there is nothing to be offended for China, I even think that you have to influence their position to distract them from Russia and that they are more constructive in terms of, even Ukraine, you can do it. “
Onet in the morning. Financially
“Onet in the morning”. Financially is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts of the business world and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
The program can be watched every Wednesday at 10 on the main page of the Onet portal, and from 11 as a podcast at Onet Audio.
