The scenarios for Ukraine after the war, after the head of military espionage. The darkest variant, the “model” Belarus, the most optimistic – Israel and South Korea
It is unlikely that the scenarios in Belarus and Georgia as variants for the evolution of the situation in Ukraine satisfy the Ukrainian society, so that the Ukrainians should think seriously how they will live under current conditions and if they can now recover what has been temporarily lost, said the head of the main information direction from the Ministry of taken over by Agerpres.
In a television interview, Budanov evoked several scenarios in which Ukraine could reach the war with the Russian Federation. The first scenario is similar to that of Georgia, when Ukraine would not receive stable support from the West, it would face instability, a slow post-war recovery, a failure of European integration and would slip again on the Kremlin orbit.
Ukraine, “fortress” or “vassal”?
The second scenario is that of Israel: the transformation of the country into a “fortress”, with a rapid military modernization, with strong and continuous economic support for Ukraine from its allies, but without a significant presence of foreign troops.
The third scenario exposed by Budanov is that of South Korea. It does not provide for the accession of Ukraine to NATO, nor the recovery of the occupied territories, but if it is possible to ensure the presence of allied troops on the territory of Ukraine and obtain solid guarantees from the US, then 80% of the territory under the control of Kiev will be inhabited, being able to develop and ensure a certain security in this territory.
The fourth scenario is that of Belarus, when the US refuses to offer its support, Europe would no longer mobilize, and Ukraine, to Moscow's requirements, would turn into a vassal state. In this case, Russia would win the war, the West would divide, and the world order would be irrevocably undermined.
“These are scenarios on the possible evolution of events (…), they are simply scenarios, variants,” said Kirillo Budanov.
He stressed that the question is not what could happen, but what the Ukrainians want to obtain for themselves. It is unlikely that the scenarios of Belarus and Georgia will agree to the Ukrainian society, said the head of Gur, in the opinion of which the Ukrainians could more inclined towards the variants of the country's development as in Israel or in South Korea, but “the problem is questionable.”
Asked by the journalist Natalia Mosiiuk, who had an interview, if he believes that a new treaty from Helsinki or a new “Ialta” could result from current events, Budanov said: “On my own, I think it is still impossible. Unfortunately, I think it can happen.” In this regard, the head of Gur stressed that the question remains open who will be those leaders who will make the decision.
Survey: Zelenski and two important generals, Budanov and Sîrskîi, are in the top of the Ukrainian confidence, but none in the first place
The year 2014, the origin of today's problems
He also expressed the opinion that it would be preferable to maintain the existing world order before 2014, which turned out that it is not as reliable as many believed.
“Because it all started then. All the problems came from there. And when the Russian leader says that deep causes must be eliminated, he is in a way. Only he thinks of something else. But all the deep causes were there. It started when the whole world looked in silence, in principle, the violation of the existing world order,” he said.
Spenser Warren, a doctoral student in global conflicts and cooperation at the University of California, told Forbes that renowned researchers studying defense strategies and new weapons programs of Russia believes that it is practically impossible to establish exactly how the next Kremlin conflict with the West will begin.
There are no predictions if it could cover large areas of Europe. The publication notes that some European military experts provide that the aggression of Moscow that continues against Ukraine could escalate into a global conflict.
According to Unian, the European Union understands that, in the case of a Russian invasion, it will not be able to quickly transfer a large number of armored vehicles to the railway. However, analysts believe that the EU also has a problem with road transport, so the transport of armored vehicles with trucks remains an uncertain method.
