publication
2025-08-01 14:55
The July report from the American labor market presented himself below the expectations of most economists. What's more, the revision decimated the results for June as well as for May. The unemployment rate has also increased.
Number of full-time jobs in non-farm PayRolls in July 2025 She was 73 thousand higher than a month earlier – the Government Office of Labor Statistics (BLS) informed. It was a result of a worse than market consensus at 110,000. The reviews of May and June were also very severe, which in total took over a quarter of a million jobs.
The July “Payrolls” turned out to be weaker than June, when 147 thousand arrived in the US economy. full -time jobs (but only +14,000 after the search!). In turn, the May result in the form of 139 thousand It was revised down to just 19,000 compared to 158,000. (after searches) recorded in April. On the other hand, the data for March showed that as many as 228,000 came in the world's largest economy. full -time jobs, which was then a result that significantly exceeds the expectations of economists. Therefore, it can be seen that the trend of employment creation in the USA is decreasing.
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The average for seven months of 2025 decreased to 84 thousand. It is less in nearly 200,000 On average in 2024 and definitely less than 240 thousand. For 2023. On the other hand, in Postlockown 2022, as a result of breaking with the sanitary regime, there were more than 381,000 on average. full -time jobs.
Noteworthy is the systematic decline in employment in industry, where the number of full -time jobs shrunk the third month in a row. A decrease in the number of jobs was also recorded in wholesale trade, information sector and professional business services. By 10 thousand The number of full -time jobs (not to be confused with the number of employees!) In the public sector has also decreased. Including the number of federal jobs it decreased by 12,000. By 10.4 thousand The list of payroll in the educational sector conducted by local authorities has also been shortened.
The unemployment rate as expected increased to 4.2% After in June it unexpectedly lowered from 4.2% to 4.1%. In absolute numbers, this translated into an increase in the number of unemployed (i.e. actively looking for jobs) by 221,000 with a decrease in the number of working by as much as 260 thousand. and the increase in passive population professionally by 239 thousand. These are the results of an independent survey (BAEL), with the help of which BLS estimates the scale of unemployment.
The average hourly rate in July 2025 was USD 36.44 and was 0.33% higher than a month earlier and by 3.9% higher than a year ago. The market consensus assumed an increase of 0.3% MDM and 3.8% yard. This means that wages in the US still grow slightly faster than the officially reported CPI inflation. The average working time was extended from 34.2 to 34.3 hours a week.
The initial reaction of the market was the decisive weakening of the dollar in relation to the euro. The EUR/USD exchange rate at 14:45 increased to 1.1532 relative to 1.1394 just before the publication of the BLS report. Such weak data from the labor market increase the chances of the September cut of interest rates in the federal reserve.
