The average forecast of economists assumes that CPI consumer inflation in July 2025 could decrease to about 2.8 percent. year on year. We will find out about it on Thursday at 10.00, when GUS publishes a preliminary reading of the July inflation (we will know the final data two weeks later). For comparison, inflation in June was 4.1 percent, which means that the largest inheritance of the annual inflation rate for a month may occur for a month and a half.
At the beginning of this year, the main inflation rate in Poland remained clearly increased: in the first three months of the year it was 4.9 percent. year to year, but in the second quarter it decreased and in the whole first half of 2025. Consumer prices in Poland grew by 4.5 percent year on year.
If the forecast works, it will mean that inflation has been falling to the NBP target for the first time since March 2021 (excluding spring 2024, when, due to the effects of the comparative base, inflation decreased to up to 2 percent, but only temporarily, because later the increase in energy prices and returning to the standard VAT rate for food stood out beyond the target). Without this exclusion, it would be the lowest level of inflation for a year. We would like to remind you that the NBP's point inflationary purpose is 2.5 percent. per year with a tolerated range of deviations 1.5-3.5 percent.
Reading for July is important because, according to economistswhich could support the mild attitude of the Monetary Policy Council after the holidays and bring closer to cuts from September (there is no decision -making meeting in August).
Electricity bills slightly up, gas down
“Everything seems to indicate that as a result of the effect of the base and reduction of gas tariffs, CPI inflation will drop below 3 percent year on year. Our forecast is 2.9 percent, and the median in the Bloomberg survey is 2.8 percent. In our opinion, inflation will fall even more in August and will remain below 3 percent. until the end of this year, which should be conducive to the pigeon attitude” – assessed analysts Santander Bank Polska. NBP in July projection indicated that inflation throughout the third quarter should be on average 2.9 percent year on year.
Basic inflation has been located since April 2025 for the NBP (although this formally refers to CPI inflation).
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Own study based on NBP and CSO data.
Inflation in July is mainly the effect of a high reference base from a year ago, when electricity prices have grown clearly. July inflation will also be influenced by a reduction in gas prices for households and restoring the power fee. “In July, CPI inflation will return to the NBP inflational target and will remain in it for the next quarters” – the economists of Bank Millennium wrote.
According to estimates of the Bank of Environmental Protection Bank The new tariff will reduce the gas bill in July by approx. 10 percent. Compared to June, and the restoration of the power fee will increase the average electricity bill by approx. 7.4 percent. In relation to June. However, the impact of the database effect will be stronger than the increase in electricity prices due to the restoration of the power fee, so the inflation indicator will drop. “The scale of the decrease in the annual CPI index will limit a slightly higher than a month ago the annual dynamics of food prices and an increase in administrated prices (garbage disposal, water supply and sewage services” – added BOŚ analysts.
See also: “Inflation will fall down”. The borrowers can count on such a decrease in interest rates
ING Bank Śląski experts estimate that in July, in a monthly basis, food prices fell slightly and fuel prices increased. They forecast that base inflation (i.e. the indicator excluding food, fuel and energy prices) has decreased to around 3.1 percent. year on year with 3.4 percent in June. The implementation of this forecast would mean that base inflation It would fall to the lowest level from January 2020, i.e. for five and a half years.
Credit Agricole Bank Polska experts have a more optimistic forecast than the market average. According to their analysis, the dynamics of consumer prices in July dropped to 2.6 percent. year to year with 4.1 percent in April. Goldman Sachs economists expect even lower reading – 2.5 percent
The average forecasts of economists indicate that in July consumer inflation dropped to 2.8 percent. year on year.
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CSO, NBP, own study
“The uncertainty about CPI reading this month is extremely high, and its importance for short -term monetary policy prospects is extremely high. Our forecast is much lower than the NBP forecast, so if we are not wrong, the monetary policy will be pigeon in the near future. In the long run, we expect inflation in Poland to remain in the compartment of deviations in the coming months, reaching 2.7 percent. At the end of the year ” – wrote Goldman Sachs experts.
Last week, Marta Kightley, the Vice President of the National Bank of Poland, said that in July inflation should decrease to about 3 percent, and in the medium date it will be in line with the NBP's goal. She emphasized the four most important risks up to CPI: expected loose fiscal policythe development of the economic situation, the situation on the labor market (still increased rate of salary growth) and energy prices.
Fencing inflation valid for the decision on interest rates
Ebury analysts reminded that During the last press conference, NBP President Adam Glapiński pointed out that it should be in terms of the bank's purposeand that would mean a decrease to a value not exceeding 3.5 percent. and reaching the lowest levels in over a year.
“These data are all the more important because they will have a direct impact on the scale of interest rates this year. If they do not bring increased variability, the zloty will remain dependent on external factors probably until the last days of August, when speculation about the RPP decision may begin,” they wrote in Monday's report.
Bank Millennium experts have indicated that the lasting return of CPI inflation to the inflation target supports further reduction of interest rates by the MPC.
“Another traffic by 0.25 percentage points It is already possible in September. Considering the still high base inflation, as well as the perspective of maintaining a high budget deficit, In our opinion, soothing the monetary policy will be gradually” – they wrote.
In May, for the first time in 19 months, the MPC changed interest rates, lowering them by 0.50 percentage points. In June, the cost of money did not change, and at the beginning of July went down by another 0.25 percentage points, which means bringing a reference rate to equal 5 percent. Most economists see a place for two or three cuts by the end of this year, which would mean that the reference rate may at the end of 2025 amount to 4.50 percent, respectively. or 4.25 percent
Author: Maciej Rudke, Business Insider Polska journalist
