In the updated “World Economic Outlook” report The IMF forecasts that the global economy will increase by 3 percent. in 2025 and by 3.1 percent in 2026. This is more than the forecasts from April, which assumed 2.8 percent, respectively. and 3 percent growth, writes “Financial Times”.
The two largest economies of the world – the United States and China – also recorded an increase in growth forecasts.
The chief economist of the IMF, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, in an interview with the Financial Times, said that the world economy has “fragile resistance” despite the chaotic introduction of US duties in recent months. In his opinion, economic growth was not so weakened, because the finally introduced tariffs were milder than originally assumed.
– In April we set up an average effective customs rate of 24 percent. for imports to the USA. We currently rate it at 17 percent. Gourinchas said. – Although 17 percent This is still much more than at the beginning of the year, it means some softening of customs pressure.
Milder tariffs and weaker dollar support global growth
The economist also indicated that the decrease in the value of the dollar supported the global economy. This year, the American currency weakened by almost 9 percent. relative to the basket of main currencies, incl. euro and pound. The reason is the fears related to the trade war and the independence of the federal reserve.
Despite better forecasts, the expected growth remains lower than in 2024, when the global economy increased by 3.3 percent. For comparison, the average growth rate from before the pandemic was 3.7 percent.
On Wednesday, the United States is to publish data on annual economic growth for the second quarter, which, according to the estimates of the Bloomberg survey, is to amount to 2.5 percent. This increase occurs after a previous GDP decline at the beginning of the year. The revision up is to result, among others From the recognition of goods accumulated in a given supply of goods before the entry into force of the duties.
