This is because it can be assumed that Russia can attack if it considers that it is able to conquer in a relatively short time or forces any of the NATO countries to surrender. The only guarantee that this will not happen is to have the right military potential.
This, of course, will probably result in the fact that having invested gigantic resources in armed forces, as a result we will never have the need to use them. What, unfortunately, do not understand all kinds of pacifists and the so -called The useful idiots of the Kremlin is the fact that this is exactly what investing in defense, that it is done not to fight war, but to avoid them.
The argument that the funds intended for armed forces can be used in a better way, for example by investing them in education or health service, is completely demagogical, because if Poland or other potentially threatened by Russia states will invest in their armed forces, the probability of Russian aggression will only increase, and then neither good schools nor modern hospitals will give us anything.
Of course, the solution would be a compromise with Russia leading to the limitation of the arms race. Unfortunately, this is unfortunately impossible. And not the fault of the West, but only Russia.
Importantly, the scenario of a classic war is not contrary to appearances those who are most often observed by serious politicians and experts. The head of the German interview already mentioned in an interview with the Reuters agency stated that the Russians did not have to send tanks to test NATO at all. The scenario of the so -called conflict below the war threshold.
In such a script, the Russians could organize a provocation, as a result of which there would be a jumping increase in tension, and Moscow, observing the reaction of the West, would decide whether to organize another and only at the end of the so -called Escalation ladder or use the army.
There are at least a few provocation scenarios, from the incident in the Baltic Sea, through bringing to the disaster of its own aircraft, which would violate the aerial space of the NATO state, blowing up the air passing, e.g. through Lithuania to the Kaliningrad circuit of the train with Russian tourists, to the cause of the riots in one of the Baltic States (the last scenario was indicated by Bruno Kahl).
This last scenario seems to be the most likely, especially since the Russians were conducted many years ago. In April 2007, Russian special services led to the outbreak of mass riots in the capital of Estonia, Tallinn.
These riots were an allegedly spontaneous reaction of the Russian minority to the transfer of the monument to the gratitude of the Soviet army (the so -called bronze soldier) from the center of Tallinn to the military cemetery. One man bending, over 170 people were injured and over 1000 were arrested.
Russia, if they were to repeat the script from Tallinn, would like the state in which the riots would occur, would not be able to control the situation and restore order.
This is how Russian provocation could look
To achieve this, the Russians would most likely strive to appear in one place of extreme pro and anti -Russian groups. This would allow the use of propaganda that would encourage people from extreme environments from both sides to join the riots. The goal would be to transform them into regular street fighting, in which a firearm would be used at some point, with the desired scenario it would be that the first victims would appear on the side of pro -Russian demonstrators. It should be assumed that for this purpose the Russians have either infiltrated or will infiltrate right -wing environments.
The condition for the implementation of the Russian scenario is that the riots could not be quickly mastered. In turn, the task of the state in which this kind of Russian provocation and NATO would have occurred would be strong and immediate pacification of the riots.
For this to happen, a given state (due to the presence of the Russian minority, most likely Estonia or Latvia, although in the context of the migration crisis, Polish and Lithuania would also be possible attack objects) and allies from NATO must have a plan developed for decisive actions of a nature, but at the same time going beyond the standard methods used in peace. Not less important, to understand the need for hard pacification methods must have the societies of the alliance states.
How should countries react to Russian activities?
The action plan should include several points.
First of all, it should be assumed that we would deal with the de facto aggression of a foreign state, not standard riots, which occur from time to time in every country. This must mean readiness to be used, if necessary, also strength methods of pacification. The brutality of police forces always provokes subsequent riots, but in this case it should be considered that attempts to distribute subsequent riots will happen anyway. The scale of the force used must be to pacify the riots as possible as possible.
Secondly, the allied countries under NATO must provide assistance in suppressing the demonstration at the police stage, i.e. before the crisis changes its character and becomes a military surgery. Police units should therefore be transferred to the country where the riots would occur, e.g. by air using military aviation transport aircraft.
Thirdly, a legal framework should be prepared in advance, which will allow the introduction of a curfew, a ban on gatherings, removal of arrested persons to distant isolation places, etc. Of course, these solutions must be accompanied by the mechanisms of real defense of detainees. Optimally, actions should also be international in relation to detainees. However, the priority must be order.
Fourthly, you should introduce clear principles of media operating in the conflict zone. On the one hand, objective media must be able to report the course of events, but on the other, the law of the state subjected to the attaches to prevent action for journalists and other people who would like to hinder police actions.
Fifthly, police activities should be accompanied by a demonstration of military force, so that the Russians understand that in the event of an attempt to transform the riots into an armed conflict, their people will be liquidated.
Sixth, you should prepare your own scenarios for calling riots in key Russian cities. The Russians must know that if they do not cease to provoke demonstration in the West, they may have to face demonstrations in Moscow or St. Petersburg.
