Don't crack, buy? What awaits American actions and economy, markets in Europe as well as gold and bonds – Investors TFI forecasts
It's from the famous entries of Donald Trump “Now is a great time to buy” and “Be Cool!” The reflection on the American Stock Exchange, which from over 20 %, began to this day. The inheritance went to over 5 percent present In the plus, counting from the beginning of the year – reminds Jarosław Niedzielewski, investment director of Investors TFI. The US president made a “pivot”, which is still ongoing and should support Wall Street in the coming months.
In mind Jarosław Niedzielewski, investment director at the Investors TFI company, Markets are still implementing a scenario similar to the well -known from the second half of the 1990s. If, less than 30 years ago, the driving force was the development of the Internet, today it is the development of artificial intelligence. – AI is the subject of a decade, a topic that really changes the world – believes Niedzielewski.
The replay of the 90s, however, means similar costs as then. On the one hand, “higher feet for longer”. – Even if the Fed is cutting your feet, the cost of the loan will still be significantly higher than in the previous decade. There will be no return to zero or negative feet, without a recession it will not happen – says Niedzielewski.
The second cost is variability in the markets. – Variability in the 1990s appeared for various reasons – there was an Asian crisis, LTCM fall, problems of Argentina or Brazil. But the trend on the stock market remained upward. It was enough to wait a few weeks or months and the S&P 500 or Nasdaq indexes beat new records. It is the same this time, variability also increases periodically. Last year we had a small crash in August. This year, the market was terrified by Trump's policy and liberation day. But it was enough to wait for a while and the American indexes are at the tops again – the expert points out.
Trump's return continues until now
The mood change occurred due to how Niedzielewski describes, “Pivotu Trump”.
After the Trump and his administration from the start of the term of office, they appeared with shocking markets, entrepreneurs and consumers with initiatives – cuts of budget expenditure, dismissals in administration, and finally very high duties announced on April 2 on “Day of Liberation” – from April 9 there was a gradual departure from all previous activities. – In the March message, Trump said that before the golden era for America began, some inconvenience and adaptation must occur. This affected the decrease in forecasts for the American economy for this year with 2.5% by half. However, a week after the day of liberation, “Pivot” took place and a change of narrative, which is basically lasting until now – emphasizes Niedzielewski. He adds that if it wasn't for this Trump's phrase, a recession would probably be waiting for the American economy.
Currently, American decision -makers are pushing “A great beautiful law”,
which is to increase the American deficit, what to use, among others Taxpayers and business. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has ceased to talk about Detox, but indicated that thanks to the “great beautiful law” economic growth will accelerate in the US to 3% next year. Markets have reacted to this – emphasizes the Investors TFI expert. This act has passed through the Senate and is now waiting for a re -vote in the House of Representatives.
Who will bear the costs of customs
Fund managers, according to Bank of America polls, were seriously afraid in April “Hard landing” in the US economy in the next 12 months. Currently, only 13% of them have similar expectations, i.e. a similar percentage as before the April turmoil.
As Niedzielewski indicates, a strong change in expectations for the economic situation or the situation on the stock exchange was also visible from American consumers or entrepreneurs, but the last polls already indicate a significant calming of moods and a return to readings from a few months ago.
The great unknown to investors in the coming months will still be how American companies react to higher duties and whether it will affect their profits or inflation. – Customs will certainly not be as high as announced on the day of liberation, but they will remain higher than before the beginning of the current term of Trump. Someone must bear their costs. Companies approach this differently, some transfer costs to consumers, which can mean higher inflation. Some decide to reduce margins, others transfer costs to suppliers, giving up deliveries from China in favor of e.g. imports from Bangladesh or Vietnam – the expert indicates. Let us remind you that the suspension period of high duties expires in July 9.
Be Cool. Keep buying. Trump visionary
Niedzielewski reminds that the beginning of “Pivot” is associated with the entries of Donald Trump in social media, including about the content “This is a great time for shopping !!!”. – Pivot's best manifestation is Parting with Elon Musk. As Donald Trump said, it's a great time to buy. “Don't crack, buy.” Simply visionary, he hit the Nasdaq falling hole – jokes Niedzielewski. Anyway, Pivot has an impact on markets so far, and Trump's attitude does not change yet.
In the first half of the year, however, there was a significant change in the perception of the American market by investors. While before the beginning of the year it was bet that small American companies (Russell 2000 index) or technology companies (NASDAQ index) will do the best this year, so currently most fund managers focus on international shares (54%), and only 23% on American. This can also be seen from actual decisions. According to Bank of America, the euro zone, which was the most underweight market at the beginning of the year, currently jumped to the first place when it comes to overviewing the managing portfolios in the USA. On the other hand, American actions, one of the favorites from the end of last year, are today the least desirable and their underpayment in their wallets is the greatest.
Deepseek struck, but the status quo has been preserved
Companies from the so -called Wonderful seven. – AI was to remain an American invention, while Chinese Deepseek appeared suddenly and this narrative fell – says Niedzielewski. However, in his opinion, the hard data, which are reports of American technological giants, show that their “splendor” has not yet disappeared. – Investments in AI are and will be high all the time, and the US will probably not be able to take the lead of the leader in this race. This can be seen in recent months, because not only the magnificent seven, but also other technological companies that are associated with the AI revolution, grew strongly – emphasizes the expert.
In his opinion, among technology companies for sure There is still no bubble similar to the dotcom bubbles from the 90s. – Behind Nvidia is a huge money in the form of her revenues and profits. It can not be compared with Cisco 30 years ago. In addition, we had a wave of companies that appeared on the market and wanted to occupy the Internet or changed the industry to the internet. It is not only ahead of us, this is not the phase yet – predicts Niedzielewski.
Arguments for the USA, arguments for Europe
After the last reflection of the American actions, in his opinion, it is still an open matter, which from the main markets will be best this year. – It is difficult to say whether it will be rising as a whole, Europe or Wall Street. The S&P 500 return rate or Nasdaq from the beginning of the year to today is over 5%, in Europe the indexes have gained 6-8%, although the German DAX stands out, which has grown almost 20%. The rate of return on emerging markets is less than 10% – indicates the Investors TFI expert.
He emphasizes that in the case of American companies, forecasts for the growth of their profits for the next year and a half speak for further rise. – The upward trend in the results of the companies translates into an upward trend on the stock market – he emphasizes.
In turn, the improving economic situation and fiscal stimulation plans, primarily in Germany, speaks for markets in Europe, where several hundred billion euros for investments are to be paid from the budget. – investors believe in Europe, Because you can see the determination of politicians, primarily German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, to actually pump this money in the economy – notes Niedzielewski. It also emphasizes the beneficial effect on the economy of low interest rates, which have been cut by ECB to 2% and are realistically zero.
WSE will not give the leader's shirt
Our domestic market has gained over 30% this year and is among the best in the world next to, among others Greece, Slovenia or Hungary. – We are unlikely to be able to pick up the position among the leaders by the end of the year – predicts Niedzielewski. In his opinion, the Polish economy, and above all national industry and exporters, should also benefit from German fiscal stimulation. The effects can be expected next year.
Until now, banks have been driven by the national bull market. – Over the years, the banks were weak, they had up the hill through low interest rates, bank tax or franc stories. But these topics have ended and today we have record sector results. You can see a correlation between Polish banks and European, which have been returning to normal for the last two years – to normal valuations or profits – notes Niedzielewski. In his opinion, the strength of Polish shares, just like in the USA or Europe, should be determined by the profits of companies, which according to forecasts are to significantly grow in this and next year.
Gold and long -term bonds as Portela's security
In his opinion, however, you still need to take place in the wallet for safe assets. – It may turn out that there will be a recession and unemployment or inflation will start to grow. In these variable times it is worth protecting yourself – advises Niedzielewski.
In his opinion, this role will work well, among others Long -term bonds. -I would treat profitability levels close to 4.5% for 10-year US bonds as a good opportunity to buy them as a security of the shares portfolio-he indicates. We would like to remind you that long -term bonds should bring more profits in the case of interest rate cuts than short -term papers. Gold is the second of such assets. – Kruszec has shown its value over the past two years as the kind of assets that diversifies the wallet well. It is constantly bought by central banks and investors in Asia – adds Niedzielewski.
Investors TFI is one of the largest independent investment funds societies in Poland. In the first half of the year it recorded PLN 675 million net inflows to their funds. – If the second half of the year is similar, we will close the year with a result comparable to last year, when the inflows amounted to PLN 1.2 billion – says Zbigniew Wójtowicz, president of Investors TFI.
At the end of the half -year, the Investors TFI open funds were gathered PLN 9.8 billion. This amount is PLN 900 million, which the company manages as part of employee capital plans (PPK).
