The Chinese quench the Kremlin's hopes. It will put Gazprom against the wall [OPINIA]
In one of his articles, the magazine “The Wall Street Journal” mentioned a possible increase in the Chinese interest of the Chinese with additional supplies of Russian gas, and thus – the Gas Piragine design Siberia 2.
The authors referred to the anonymous sources “close to decision makers in Beijing”, suggesting that the Chinese can revise the decision to reject this project. This would be caused by concerns about the supply of gas from the Persian Gulf region will be difficult due to the Iranian-Israeli conflict and the Iran's closing of the Straśnina Ormuz.
This argument is, to put it mildly, late.
No agreement
The military phase of the conflict between Israel and Iran ended with virtually complete neutralization of the defense and aggressive potential of Iran. Navigation by the Strait of Ormuz is not threatened. Energy prices have shown that the market did not react to the violent rhetoric and threats of Tehran “Jastrzębi”. There is no threat to gas supply from this region to China.
The fact that the Chinese completely stopped the import of condensed gas from the United States cannot be considered an argument for their alleged interest in Siberia's strength 2. This is a reflection of ongoing negotiations between Washington and Beijing taking place in the customs war. These negotiations may soon end and China will certainly resume shopping of American gas – their strategy remains the diversification of suppliers and the pursuit of obtaining energy from as many sources as possible, without the favor of any of them. The optimism of Gazprom spokesmen regarding this development of events is rather unjustified.
Gazprom logo during the 12th International Gas Forum in St. Petersburg, October 31, 2023.
One should not forget about the Chinese aspirations to reduce imports through the development of other energy sources, exploiting their own resources and implementing energy -saving technologies.
What happens to the gas pipeline project Siberia 2, for the development of which China – despite long negotiations at the presidential level – still does not agree? If you believe Gazprom, design and research works on the route of the planned gas pipeline began five years ago. At that time, you could not only design, but also arrange half of the pipeline. The main obstacle to the implementation of the project is the fact that The Chinese did not sign any document containing specific obligations pages receiving gas.
What's more, during negotiations, Beijing made a mocking request to deliver gas with this thread at prices in Russia. This deprives this expensive design of all commercial sense. It is worth recalling that the current gas supply system to China as part of the first gas pipeline for Siberia is also non -commercial.
Does this mean that the Siberia 2 strength project has no chance of implementing? This conclusion is incorrect for several serious reasons.
Political motivations
First of all, Gazprom cannot be seen as a commercial enterprise that cares about minimizing costs and maximizing profits in the interest of shareholders and basic profitability. Large projects that the company begins and finances have a clear political nature and They should be treated only as image activities for the Russian authorities -Regardless of the colossal means that the Kremlin allocates such unsuccessful ventures as “Northern streams”, “southern stream”, a new gas transport corridor from Jamała to these streams, the Sachalin-Chabarovsk-Władywostok route and finally the strength of Siberia.
Secondly, there is another motivation for developing majestic (and unprofitable) Gazprom projects – it is about profits, which thanks to them are achieved by entrepreneurs close to the Russian authorities. Contractors – often without a tender – are becoming their companies, which artificially overstate the cost estimates of works and materials.
Thirdly, a strong motivation to build the gas pipeline Siberia 2 was the need to fix the error made with the Chinese conclusion for gas supplies in 2014. Resources of two deposits: Kowieta in the Irkutsk region and Czajanda in Yakutia do not allow the fulfillment of this contract. Gazprom undertook to deliver China for 30 years after 38 billion cubic meters. gas per year, and 42 billion cubic meters must extract it. during the year. However, geologists and minings present on site assess that the deposits will lose their potential long before the expiry of this date.
Open with a large pump gas pipeline Siberia must be saved. Gazprom is considering returning to the concept, which he considered in 2013 in the initial gas supply project to China – i.e. connecting to other Jakucky deposits. However, it turned out that the development of these reserves and bringing them to the required production level would take too much time.
Gazprom's management decided to provide the necessary amounts of gas to Siberia's strength not from any source, but from a distant Jamalian-Nieniecki autonomous district and lead a new route with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters from there. annually. What's more, the same bus with the infrastructure of the Siberia forces is to be connected to the Sachalin gas pipeline – Chabarovsk – Vladivostok. This is needed to provide gas for the needs of the contract already signed with the Chinese for 10 billion cubic meters. Annually the Far Eastern route.
Unprofitable project
In fact, the construction of the gas pipeline Siberia 2 has already begun. Last year, the construction of a 800 km route from Siberia to Chabarowska, from where gas will be able to go to Vladivostok, and then to China, began in Russia. The decision to create border crossings with the Chinese has already been agreed. The Russians also started working on the main route from Jamała. This project is implemented in stages, under the guise of increasing the bandwidth of individual sections of a long -built gas pipeline. He provides gas with Russian recipients in the Tomski, Nowosybirski, Kemerian districts and runs to Altai.
The demand for gas is microscopic and increasing the annual bandwidth of the rebuilt sections to 50 billion cubic meters. There is no sense – unless the long -term plans for connecting this route with the strength of Siberia in the Irkutsk region are taken into account. Gazprom, therefore, builds the strength of Siberia 2 for the reasons mentioned, without waiting for the Chinese to agree to adopt new amounts of gas on the proposed route by Mongolia.
The fact that China will not cover even part of the costs of this project is understandable. It is enough to recall how Gazprom representatives declared that the Chinese would spend up to $ 20 billion. (approx. PLN 72 billion) for the construction of the first gas pipeline, the force of Siberia, although these statements did not correspond to the truth. The Chinese have never invested the gas pipeline in this project. Now the situation is repeated. Pragmatic decision -makers in Beijing will be happy to watch Gazprom spending money on the expansion of eastern gas transport infrastructure and maybe someday they will agree to additional imports at a favorable price.
Everything goes according to the scheme. It starts with the ambitious plans of the conquest of the Chinese gas market, then unprofitable contracts are concluded in advance, then it turns out that the contracts are impossible due to the lack of resources, and then you need to “fix errors”, spending huge money on new, unprofitable projects. In addition to the Chinese, only “bribed” Gazprom contractors gain on this.
