“The Iranian nuclear program cannot be stopped or destroyed by military means.” Warning of a specialized analyst on the Middle East conflicts
Ayatollahul Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran. Photo credit: Office of the Supreme Leader of / AFP / Profimedia
“The best way to eliminate the danger of a nuclear armed Iran is the conviction of the Tehran regime that these capabilities are not necessary,” says the conflicts in the Middle East Raul Pintilie, in an article that will appear in the tomorrow's edition of the Hotnews newsletter “Ration, back”. In order to receive the full analysis of the conflict between Iran and Israel, you must subscribe to the newsletter.
“The Iranian nuclear program cannot be stopped or destroyed by military means. They can only delay the obtaining of nuclear armament,” says Raul Pintilie who has participated in several research projects on the Middle East.
“The Tehran already has the knowledge needed to produce this type of armament and no matter how many Centrifuges Israel and the US would destroy and any scientists would assassinate, they will never end the Iran's race to be armed nuclear.
On the contrary, if the regime remains in power, it could conclude that the only way it can be protected from external enemies is the nuclear weapon, and that would do that in a few years, Israel should face a situation similar to the current one.
A change of regime is unlikely to bring stability, and in these circumstances the region will face a multitude of other problems. Thus, the best way to eliminate the danger of a nuclear armed Iran is the conviction of the Tehran regime that these capabilities are not necessary. And this can only be done by diplomacy and a new agreement of the type JCPOA ”, says Raul Pintlie.
The signing of JCPOA (Joint Comprehetsive Plan of Action) between Iran and P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, China, Russia, France, UK, Plus Germany and the European Union) allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) access to the Iranian Nuclear Program to ensure those provided.
During the years until the unilateral withdrawal of the US and the refund of economic sanctions against Tehran, Aiea reported full compliance with JCPOA. With the exit of Washington, under the first Trump administration, in the agreement, Iran significantly limited the access of the agency inspectors and eliminated the monitoring systems part of the nuclear program.
Since 2018, we have little official and public information about the evolution of the enrichment of uranium, but AIEA mentions in the last published report a serious concern regarding the significant increase and accumulation of enriched uranium, explained Raul Pintilie.
