Ludwik Kotecki, a member of the Monetary Policy Council, assessed that the council would not decide to reduce the feet in July (a two -day meeting will start on Tuesday, July 1) in connection with the global situation, and the reduction may occur in September (there is no decision -making meeting in August).
– GUS published information about remuneration that begins to be a very important element for the Monetary Policy Council. The salary dynamics is a little lower again than it was in April, it is a good signal – said Ludwik Kotecki on Monday during the Funds Forum in Nałęczów.
In this way he referred to data on average wages in May: dynamics slowed down to 8.3 percent. year to year with 9.3 percent In April, what the MPC is thinking about, because it means not so much demand pressure. Still, the rate of salary growth is too high, greater than the increase in work efficiency, and inconsistent with the inflation goal of the NBP. In real terms, wage dynamics is high and reaches about 4.5 percent. year on year.
– After all, I think that in connection with the global situation, the advice will not decide to reduce in Julyhowever – in my opinion – if not in July, if there is no something that we are not able to imagine until September, then in September such a reduction will take place – added Kotecki.
Recently – despite the data conducive to reductions – members of the MPC (with the president of the NBP Adam Glapiński at the forefront) emphasized the factors of uncertainty, primarily regarding the loose policy of the fiscal situation. They pointed out that the MPC only at the September meeting will know the draft budget for 2026 and the final data on inflation for July (then a large decrease in the CPI indicator is expected, mainly due to the effects of the comparative base). That is why economists have recently shifted the expectations of another foot reduction from July to September.
0.50 percentage points foot cuts this year?
According to Ludwik Kotecki, in the second half of the year interest rates in Poland should still fall by 0.50 percentage points. In May, the MPC reduced the cost of money by 0.50 percentage points, bringing the reference rate to 5.25 percent, it was the first down traffic in over a year and a half. In June, the MPC kept her feet unchanged. If there were actually a cut, which Kotecki talked about, the NBP reference rate would drop to 4.75 percent at the end of the year.
See also: Basic inflation down. This is what it means for people with a loan
