The EU resigns from sharper sanctions for Russian oil. “Without the participation of the USA it doesn't make sense”
The decision was made in the atmosphere rapid fluctuations in oil prices caused by the escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict and in the face of the lack of support from the United States for further exacerbation of the sanction regime.
Firstly, The oil market has become extremely nervous in recent days. Brent quotations, which only a month ago oscillated around $ 70, increased after the attacks mentioned by Tehran and Tel Aviv to nearly $ 79. For the barrel – at most from January. Reduction of a ceiling in such conditions would threaten a further jump in prices and deepening inflationary pressure in the Member States.
Secondly, the sanction “Kartel of Buyers” only works when all G7 countries cooperate. Diplomats in Brussels, however, signaled that the administration of Donald Trump – concerned about the costs for the US economy and the prospect of another increase in fuel prices – not a more severe limit. “Lowering the ceiling without Washington's participation would not make sense, “emphasized Maria Szagina from Iiss.
What remains in the 18th package?
The European Commission maintains a number of other restrictions. The package provides, among others ban on transactions related to the closed Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines, the cut -off extension from the SWIFT system to subsequent Russian banks and adding several dozen units of the “shadow fleet” to the black list of ships, which It is to make Moscow to avoid an existing $ 60 limit.
The price ceiling introduced in December 2022 by G7, the EU and Australia had two goals: to limit Russia's revenues and at the same time stabilize oil supply on the global market. Since then, the discount used by Moscow has increased, but – as Ursula von der Leyen admitted – the last increase in quotations made the current 60 dollars. “It still fulfills its function.” At the same time, approx. 90 percent Russian raw material reaches markets outside the control of Western insurers Thanks to the worn -out fleet of tankers under the bands of third countries, which prompts Brussels to strengthen the enforcement of existing regulations instead of tightening them.
Political friction in the EU
Divisions inside the Union also contributed to the correction of plans. Slovakia and Hungary condition consent to new sanctions by providing alternative energy sources, and some of the southern states are afraid that The reduction of the limit would conquer oil import costs. A compromise solution, i.e. maintaining the ceiling and tightening the fight against its celebration, is to increase the chances of accepting the package unanimously.
What next? Commission representatives admit that the subject of the maximum price may come back when the situation in the Middle East calms down, and The price of Brent will move away from the current limit again. For now, the priority for Brussels and G7 partners is to maintain a balance between financial pressure on the Kremlin and the stability of the energy market. Especially since analysts warn that the closing of the Strait of Ormuz in the extreme scenario could push oil above $ 120.
Decision to abandon a ceiling $ 45 It shows how strictly sanction policy is intertwined with geopolitics and raw material markets today. For European economies, this means a short -term relief from the risk of a further increase in fuel prices, but also the need to patiently seal existing restrictions, if the Union still wants to reduce Russia's war, not destabilizing the global oil market.
