Russia, between fear and failure. What a Romanian general says about the real threat from the East

Which is the true Russia: the humiliated one by the Ukrainians or the one who puts the fear in Europeans and causes NATO to double its budget. Former chief of the General Staff of the Romanian Army, General Stefan Dănilă responds, for “Adevărul”, to this dilemma.

Iskander rockets are among the dreaded weapons of the Russian Federation. Photo: EPA

An entire continent is terrified of the simple thought that one day should face a confrontation with the Russian Federation. As during the Cold War, strong Western states such as Germany or France expect everything that can be worse from the East. Military and political analysts, heads of intelligence services, generals and politicians from most NATO states have pointed out that we could collide with the east giant. And some have also advanced a deadline for it. Heads of British, French and German services said that NATO could only have between 3 and 7 years to prepare for a total war.

Fear of Russian Federation

Among those who warned not once that Russia can be a danger to NATO countries and for all Europe are NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Dutchman has gone out several times with harsh statements, asking the Allies to prepare for a confrontation with Moscow. The alternative would be, said Rutte, to prepare to learn Russian.

“We are safe now, but we will not be in four or five years from now. So if you do not do this, prepare the Russian-language courses or run in New Zealand or decide now to spend more. This is the debate we have to end in the next three or four months to stay safe in this part of the world and to defend us.“Rutte said in a speech for the European Parliament.

And returned Monday, June 9, with an equally explicit statement: “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within 5 years. Let's not deceive ourselves, we are all on the eastern flank now.”Rutte said in a speech at Chatham House in London, referring to the range of Russian missiles.

All these major fears and the warnings of some experts are contradicted, at least apparently, that the Russian Federation failed after more than three years to decisively defeat Ukraine, although on paper the Russian troops would have all the arguments to crush their opponents. And as if not enough, there is information that shows that the Ukraine war has decimated the Russian army or at least weakened it to a large enough extent that Russia is no longer able to threaten any other country.

The Russian army would have lost almost a million people and is likely to exceed this figure by the summer of 2025, according to a new report of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) based in the US.

In fact, the total number of military victims on both sides are approaching 1.4 million, including about 400,000 Ukrainian or injured soldiers. The group of experts estimate that over 950,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or injured since the beginning of the large -scale invasion of February 2022.

“It is normal for NATO to consider Russia a threat.”

In such a situation, taking into account the real difficulties that the Russians have in Ukraine, the question arises whether the Europeans, including states with strong and well-equipped armed states, France or Germany are born, would really have reasons to fear Russia or if all this generalized panic is just a proof of a European inconsistency. Or if, as other analysts claim, this is just another facet of an information war and a well -motivated strategic communication.

For this, “Adevărul” appealed to General (R) Stefan Dănilă, former head of the General Staff of the Romanian Army, one of the most suitable specialists to clarify this seemingly nonsense.

General Stefan Dănilă. Photo: Facebook

“The truth is that we are in a full confrontation. Unfortunately it is not only a Russia's war with Ukraine, but it is a confrontation of Russia with the West, that is, the European Union, NATO. The conflict started from Ukraine's decision to enter NATO. Do I consider the action of Russia other than an aggressive action towards the alliance? says General Dănilă.

Explanation of apparent logic fractures

At the same time, many of the alarmist statements of some military analysts who leave the impression that for the Russians it would be a simple formality the conquest of Europe have a special logic. The former head of the General Staff of the Romanian Army explains exactly what it is.

“On the other hand, in a period of confrontation, strategic communication has several goals. Some are to discourage the opponent, others are to calm their own population. On the one hand, the messages cannot be transmitted as in time of peace and each message must be deciphered, it must be decrypted for its purpose. one's own population, but also to discourage the Russians from continuing this war ”claims the general.

Proof is also the fact that the Russian Federation continues to attack Ukraine when they have already passed better and three years since the onset of hostilities. This is when many analysts and experts estimated that Russia's economy cannot support a war of such a few months.

“On the other hand, Russia's war capacity has shown that it can support a long-term war. We already have over three years of war in Ukraine, we also remember the missiles and bombs that should have ended at some point, but we see that they have not been finished. There is also this message transmitted by the European Union, by NATO, that we are in a period of confrontation, even if it is not a conventional one. Don't allow yourself to stay weak in front of an opponent who is increasingly armed”, General Dănilă points out.

EU and NATO made the correct decision

Basically, the decision of the European Union to invest hundreds of billions of euros in re -monitoring represents the best decision, in the given context, considers the former head of the General Staff of the Romanian Army. In fact, NATO and the European Union even hope that through this reunion will discourage the Russian Federation, and in this way it will prevent a terrible war.

“And then, for discouragement, the European Union and NATO are taking measures to re -armatize, hoping that the Russian Federation will not dare to attack a NATO member state. Let us not forget that many did not see Russia to trigger a war with the neighboring state, brother, Ukraine. Russian threat. and we do not know when or how the Russian federation could feel more threatened than it has been attacked and it would be able to act against a NATO member state.says the Romanian general.

In contrast, if in the years coming it will prove that the Russian Federation has no aggressive plane to NATO states, the European states could return to peaceful life until then, without feeling threatened and without investing hundreds of billions in weapons.

“On the other hand, what I would like to underline, that in the conditions in which the Russian Federation would not have this attitude and this aggressive behavior, there will be no problem for NATO states to reduce all the expenses for weapons and all this money will be rediring for more social well -being. General Stefan Dănilă points out.

In search of time lost time

However, at this moment the Europeans are forced to complete this re-armament program and to restore the armies they have neglected in recent decades, with the end of the Cold War.

“I saw the assessments made by the Germans, French and British. It's not the fact that everyone says the same thing. Everyone says they would need a minimum of 3 to 5 years to be able to respond properly to a direct threat. That is, it would need these years to re -enter and to be able to cope with a direct aggression of the Russian Federation. Because the Russians are now in the dynamics of war, that is, their economy is on the war. The Russians are prepared for the war, even their mentality is war. Instead, we Europeans are outside this game, we are in the mentality of peace. And will take us more to adapt and be prepared. Although NATO paper is much stronger than Russia, given that we are taken on unprepared it would be a heavy war, and the Russians would cause us huge damage and losses. Instead, if you are prepared, if you represent a force, and the other is convinced of it, realize that it would not be good to get with you. In such a case, it will be totally excluded that the Russian Federation will ever attack a NATO state. For this we will have to be well armed and strong enough, and in this way we will discourage Russia and not even go through them to attack or challenge”, Concludes General Stefan Dănilă.