Peace negotiations are complicated: the Poland-Hungarian-Slovakia triad is reconfigured, Trump, attentive to the internal struggle

Negotiations for peace and help for Ukraine have reached a difficult situation, in the context in which President Trump focuses on internal political struggle, and in Europe the Poland-Hungary-Slovakia triad has been restored, say the specialists consulted by “Adevărul”.

Trump will be conceived on solving internal problems in the next period. Photo: AFP

In addition to the open conflict with billionaire Elon Musk, President Donald Trump also has the protests against the anti-Ice raids (Federal Law Agency within the United States Internal Security Department) who climbed Los Angeles, leading to the closure of important highways and vandalism. In reply, President Donald Trump authorized the sending of 700 marines and 2,000 members of the National Guard in the city, without the consent of the governor Gavin Newsom. This action was criticized by local authorities.

California Democrats reacted firmly against the National Guard and Marini prison troops in Los Angeles. Governor Gavin Newsom accused the Federal Administration of violating the state sovereignty and initiated a federal process to challenge the legality of these measures.

Newsom criticized mobilization as an “absurd comedy”, saying that it distracts essential resources for managing other crises, such as forest fires and combating fentanyl. He also said Trump threatened to arrest, which emphasizes the authoritarian nature of the action.

Along with Newsom, Mayor Los Angeles, Karen Bass, and other Democratic leaders condemned the use of military troops to disperse the protests, considering it unnecessary escalation of tensions.

In reply, the White House defended the troops, stating that it is necessary to protect the property and federal staff.

The restoration of the triad in Europe

In addition, in Europe, the Hungary-Slovacia-Polonia triad, which will put sticks to the EU sanction measures of Russia has been restored. Robert Fico, Slovakian Prime Minister, said on June 8, that his country will block any sanctions of the European Union against Russia that undermine national interests. Also on Sunday, Viktor Orban claimed that Ukraine's accession would trigger a war with Russia.

In this context, we discussed with the foreign policy analyst Hari Bucur Marcu and with Professor Sergiu Mişcoiu about the peace negotiations and Western aid for Ukraine.

Bucur-Marcu: “The US can say: Whoever continues to trade with Russia, no longer trade with America”

Security expert Hari Bucur-Marcu, was Associate Senior Fellow for the Defense Policy at the Geneva Center for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), counselor in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for the establishment of the post-conflict reconstruction center, the academic coordinator of the NATO Studies Center in Bucharest, responsible for the NATO aspects. the situation of peace negotiations in the light of the latest evolutions.

“These attacks with hundreds of drones carried out by both Ukraine and Russia are part of the long-lasting war equation, which Trump does not want to. Trump wants to stop the war as soon as possible. But that does not mean that if there is no other solution than the long-lasting war, he will not continue to help Ukraine. For 40 years as Biden gave him and so on, but the best weapons he can give. supported the expert.

Trump still thinks he can convince Putin to stop the war. The US President has reducible weapons to bring his Russian counterpart to the negotiation table:

“If he cannot convince him, he already showed what he would mean, what would be the consequences if Putin does not stop the war, respectively the secondary sanctions that Europe can not impose. Europeans can still sanction Russia in terms of eliminating any commercial contacts with Russia, especially on energy. With Russia, he no longer trade with America. ” And at that moment, Russia is economically isolated, without a doubt. Including China can tell her this. Trump practiced this system with Iran in the first term and went perfectly. ”

The specialist believes that Trump clearly told Putin what is waiting for him from an economic point of view. At the same time, he details, Trump gives permanent proof through almost daily gestures, that he does not consider abandoning Ukraine.

“He will not let Ukraine lose. Sure, he cannot win the war. Winning the war would suppose a completely different type of war, the release of occupied territories. Those territories are occupied, but they are also inhabited by many Russian. explains the expert. We are talking about 5-6 million inhabitants in those areas, he says.

“And in such conditions, the solution will eventually stop the war on the alignments that are now. That is, without Russia to conquer all Ukraine and without Ukraine its territory is released. There is no other solution. Absolutely everyone knows this. That would mean the cessation of the war, the peace is something else, to the Europeans and United States and Canada ”, shows Bucur-Marcu.

Is the anti-Ukraine area, with Hungary, Slovakia and Poland strengthened?

Asked about the effect of restoring the anti-Ukraine triad, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, the specialist says: “That's not the case. Not? Look at Orban. So Orban eventually accepted everything that Brussels said to do, including refugees, including sanctions to Russia, he applied all the sanctions that were imposed on Russia. He says from his mouth, but otherwise he does not think of coming out of NATO and so on. “

As for, Slovakia, he claims that this does not matter from a military point of view, unlike the great powers that can bring the army to a million military anytime.

Bucur-Marcu says that in addition, the United States has accepted the Commercial Deficit with the EU. “The EU has a commercial deficit with China and America has the EU commercial deficit, as a result, and with China. So, in practice, the US subsidizes the losses in economic exchanges with China. When it came, Trump and said that it no longer accepts that Europeans do not spend for their own security and that it does not accept that America will subsidize the EU, became hateful for Europe. ”

The specialist says that Trump has a whole list of problems he inherited from Biden and none he created: “The problems he has from Biden wants to approach them in a holistic way. It has some terms, one of them is July 4, until Trump has set out to sign the” Beautiful Big Bill “legislative package, a single package with absolutely all the laws by which he should meet his goals. Some with a perspective of up to 10 years such as the development of AI ”.

We are talking about problems of energy sovereignty, the revitalization of nuclear energy, rare lands exploited in areas that are at the moment, etc.

“Until Trump will solve the internal problem, he will not deal with anything else”

“Until he solves this problem, he will not deal with anything else. So until he sees this job solved he will not do anything, and he has every chance,” the expert concluded.

The quarrel with Elon Musk is both beneficial, he believes: “Look at how the actions were grown at Tesla that had been spectacular. Then, all the accusations of the Democrats ceased that Trump is a puppet, that Elon Musk is actually president. ”

Regarding what happens in Los Angeles, the expert says: “They have no chance of protesters. Trump has the experience of 2020, with the situation in Minneapolis. There he made the offer to send the national guard to stop the violent protesters. Then he accepted the governor to intervene the national guard. While here, in California, no one asked. To defend my agency, headquarters, programs and so on.

Trump will go forward with the package of laws, he says. “What is happening in Los Angeles is not a problem. It is, indeed, spectacular, it is with fires, it is with protests, but the protesters have no chance, especially in the conditions in which they have no supporters. So the immigrants who come and those who come, especially those with the flags of Palestia have no chance to have the support of the Mexican, who will have the support. live in an America as they saw in childhood ”.

Miscoiu: “Europe under cross fire”

“So practically after Nawrocki's victory in Poland, we see a resuscitation of the former Višegrad, of course without the Czech that has a totally different attitude, but with Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. Basically, after Nawrocki's victory they caught wings these very active contrary tendencies of European policy and to block decisions. In this position, because if in Poland he won the Liberal Center and in Slovakia, Fico could not form a government, he would have been in an unique situation of isolation. Opposition leaders from various European states and of course in Donald Trump's vision”, Says Sergiu Mişcoiu, professor at Paris-East Créteil University and at Babeș-Bolyai University in Cluj.

Asked how hard this triad complicates the European aid for Ukraine, the specialist claimed: “Poland will have a somewhat double voice and the president, without a mandate from the parliamentary majority and by the Government, can not decide on the foreign policy alone. Rather at the symbolic level it is a victory for the Orban-Fifo couple, than an activation of a real possibility of blocking European policy.”

Indeed, Europe is located, says the teacher, under the cross-fire of Donald Trump-who negotiates over Europe, directly with Russia, and puts pressure on Ukraine-and leaders in the European Union who want a very different attitude than the EU has so far. “This support of Ukraine cannot remain a majority European one, that Europe cannot arve its resources to defend Ukraine and that if Americans will do, as we see that they are already starting to do, serious steps, the European Union should soften their speech to Russia and become more friendly. Mr. Fico and Orban, by Mr. Vucic, who is certainly not in the European, but who also has a voice in the field and has, to say, a minority coverage, of course, at the level of Europe, but still a coverage with the echo of some of Europeans. ”

This policy cannot be neglected, says Sergiu Mişcoiu, especially by virtue of the decision-making mechanisms in the European Union, many of them based unanimously, and this unanimity, without Hungary and Slovakia, cannot be obtained.