Analysis after losing the election of Rafał Trzaskowski. Five stages of mourning [OPINIA]
This is Elisabeth Kübler-Ross, an American doctor of Swiss origin, we owe a description of how from a psychological point of view the stages that occur after loss. Her theory concerned the patient's reaction to the news of an incurable disease and death perspective. However, the stages of mourning also describe what is happening to the power camp after Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS, won the Civic Coalition candidate, i.e. Rafał Trzaskowski in the presidential election.
This is the first reaction in which a person in mourning does not believe in what happened, he denies the facts and displaces them from his consciousness.
This stage was clearly seen on the post -election Monday in Sopot. This is not only the place of residence of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, but also the city-host of the annual European Financial Congress (EKF), i.e. a meeting of the world of politics, broadly understood banking sector, experts. The event is organized by the ideological fathers of the Civic Platform, i.e. the so -called Gdańsk liberals. Suffice it to say that the chairman of the EKF Council is former Prime Minister Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, who has been considered one of the closest advisers of Donald Tusk for years.
The majority of Congress participants is also an electorate of the current power camp and On their faces from Monday morning there was a shock, a surprise and a problem with acceptance what happened at the election urns on June 1.
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The Sopot event had a chance to become a great feta of Rafał Trzaskowski, and many people could lead to a cervical injury of the spine from filming with disbelief.
It seems that this stage of mourning has already passed, or at least the overwhelming majority of its leaders.
2. anger
Anger replaces the shock and is directed in all directions. We have already seen aggressive comments among the coalition itself and guilt. Polish politicians 2050, incl. The Minister of Funds and Regional Policy Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz or Deputy Minister of Education Joanna Mucha hit the Civic Coalition. PSL politician Marek Sawicki directly attacked Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The position of the head of the government was also undermined by Senate Deputy Marshal Michał Kamiński from the third road.
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The mood in the power camp are today – to put it mildly – terrible, because it seems that many politicians only bet on plan A, i.e. the President of the Republic of Poland Rafał Trzaskowski. There is no plan B, and the parliamentarians are visited by the vision of losing power in 2027.
This fear is irrational today, because for the next election over two years, but the fear evidently raises anger in the ranks of the ruling team. It must be large, since it affects not only the election staff, who is always a beating boy, but also Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
3. Targging
Targging has two dimensions. One part of politicians and their voters is being processed, i.e. hunting for errors in the election process is underway. These are not lacking as in all elections and they all must be thoroughly explained and corrected so that society does not lose faith in the entire election process.
From the wrong assignment of votes to one or the other candidate, for electoral forgery, which distorts the result, is a very long way. Today, there was no convincing evidence that there was a deal that could change the real decision of Poles at the urns.
However, this does not bother some politicians in playing this card and the distortion of social anxiety. Desperate movements are an element of bargaining with reality.
We can see the second dimension of bargaining in a coalition. The choice of president Rafał Trzaskowski would allow Donald Tusk to dominate the ruling camp, but this scenario has already hit the basket.
An attempt to escape forward is a request for a vote of confidence in the government, renegotiations of the coalition agreement and the reconstruction of the government. This process will formally start soon, but it will be preceded by a political fair with influence zones, stools in ministries, offices and state -owned companies.
The smaller coalition partners will try to force the largest party as much as possible, and the price will be the survival of the entire coalition.
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4. Depression
This is the most difficult stage of experiencing mourning, which is just waiting for the power camp. Magi, a sense of lost chance, lack of faith in the possibility of reversing the trend, which can lead to losing in the parliamentary elections in 2027 or the breakdown of the coalition.
If a vote of trust for the government of Donald Tusk, a new political offer for voters and the reconstruction of the government, which will give it agency in topics important to Poles, do not breathe faith in the ruling camp, then depression can last long and end the defeat in two years, and the complete defeat of the project under the name Koalition October 15.
One of the more serious symptoms of political depression may be a gradual reconciliation with being an opposition, although you still have a parliamentary majority.
5. Acceptance
This is reconciled with the new realities in which Karol Nawrocki is the president. It seems that experienced political leaders of the ruling team are ready for this, otherwise they will not be able to go further and fight in the next struggle for Poles. Political Pałkarze will still play on the election fraud and rejecting losses. However, everything indicates that the note will be false, and the melody will not impress anyone in the long run.
Author: Bartek Godusławski, journalist Business Insider Polska
