“A painful blow to the pride of an ordinary Russian.” The expert explains the powerful hit on Putin's nuclear triad. “He intensifies hysteria”
The Phancyr rocket system is ineffective against FPV drones, and the electronic combat means were not present or did not work. Currently, there are data on the destruction of at least 27 Tu-95 aircraft and probably the atomic rocket cruiser in Siewieromorsk. There is also information about the damage to several A-50 and TU-22M3 aircraft.
To understand the seriousness of the attack, I will provide data on the number of aircraft at the disposal of Russia. The air part of the Russian nuclear triad consists of (or consisted) of 58 Tu-95 aircraft, 16 Tu -60 and 58 Tu-22m3. A-50 aircraft [tzw. latające radary] Russia had only 10 pieces (taking into account the various modifications of this machine).
This means that the impact was very painful. The first conclusion from the Ukrainian attack concerns the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
For rocket attacks, Russia used the ground rocket launchers Iskander, groups of ships in the Black and Caspian Sea, as well as aviation. However, Russia does not have many sparks. He must buy rocket complexes and ammunition in North Korea and Iran.
Russia's abilities to launch rockets from ships are also limited. The Russian Black Sea fleet had to run away from Sevastopol to Noworosian. And there, the infrastructure is worse, including in the field of servicing the rocket weapons of ships.
Aviation, the most flexible planning and rocket attacks. Ultimately, Russia managed to start the relatively mass production of rockets intended for aviation. After all, they are cheaper than sparks or caliber missiles.
This means that Russia will be forced to look for other opportunities to carry out air attacks on Ukraine.
Second application. Change in public opinion in Russia
A blow to the strategic airport of aviation (and perhaps also in the base of submarines) is a blow to the pride of the “ordinary Russian”. In terms of effects, it is more important than a drone explosion over the Kremlin, and even an attack on Kurski's circuit.
Russian citizens are used to derive pride from their country as a nuclear power, believing that the Russian nuclear triad (weapon system complex) is indestructible and powerful. However, in one day their country lost a significant part of this system.
What's more, successful attacks occurred in places that are over 4000 km from the border with Ukraine. This is the cheek that Russian propaganda will have to endure for a long time. It can be one of the factors of possible destabilization of the situation in Russia or at least a reduction in the level of trust in political and military leadership.
The same applies to the highest authorities of the country. There is no guarantee that a similar container does not stand on a square, for example in Wałdaj or Rublovka [w tych miejscach znajdują się rezydencje Władimira Putina].
Third application. Geopolitical reshuffle
The Russian ambitions of obtaining the status of global superpower were based on the myth of the “Second Army of the World”. The fact that Russia “got stuck” in Ukraine has already caused repercussions in the world.
For example, Türkiye actively expanded its zone of influence in the Caucasus, in Syria and African countries. China, in turn, de facto displaced Russia from Central Asia and significantly reduced Russian expansion in Africa. In the end, China and the United States are preparing the ground for the dialogue about the future of the multiply world.
If, in 2021, both Washington and Beijing perceived Moscow as one of the poles of the new world order, today it is only a regional power.
Nevertheless, Russia still had its main advantage, i.e. nuclear weapons and a nuclear triad. Attack on Russia's strategic air force, if the withdrawal of twenty strategic aircraft is confirmed, will deprive Russia of the advantage over China in terms of the number of strategic aircraft (Russia had no advantage over the United States).
Chairman of the People's Republic of China, XI Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin
If something similar repeats, the Russian threat of nuclear attack will decrease even more. The Kremlin can boast of the number of combat heads, but if there is no means of carrying them, nuclear weapons turn into a nuclear waste landfill. They understand it perfectly both in Washington and in Beijing. They certainly meticulously analyze the nature and effectiveness of a Ukrainian attack. And later they will introduce changes to plans in the event of escalation. For example, they will develop mechanisms for the destruction of nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, there are still tens of thousands of such Chinese containers on the territory of Russia.
Now for all nuclear powers, the issue of protecting objects and transfer means arises. And this is a job for years. The character of the modern war is changing – and Ukraine once again showed it.
Putin will not dare to hit the nuclear. The reaction of other nuclear powers is important, including those on which Russia depends on – China and India.
There will certainly be no progress during peace conversations in Istanbul. The ideal solution for Ukraine would be to withdraw Russia from the trial. Russia is unlikely to go to it, it will blackmail the summer war campaign and strengthening the pressure on the front. New asymmetrical actions of the Ukrainian side are also possible.
Now there will also be a mass rocket attack on Ukraine. However, a simple blow of drone swarm, even a very large, will be an insufficient response to such an attack. An attempt to hit a ballistic in the center of Kiev is possible, but probably will not bring the expected result, because from the point of view of an ordinary Russian what happened is not an ordinary cheek, but a manifestation of the weakness of the “great power”. In Russian policy, the increase in such moods is unpleasant and dangerous to the tsar.
The Kremlin realizes that he must come up with something. Somehow prove the advantage of Russia. Increase the pressure on the front or destroy Ukrainian management by means of rocket attacks.
Nevertheless, the pace of Russia's offensive is not so groundbreaking. This is definitely not enough for the “Second Army of the World”. Even if the summer campaign is successful, the results will be visible only in autumn. And by autumn you have to somehow feed the people with fairy tales. Was the Russian citizens waiting for mobilization then?
