2025-05-07 10:17
publication
2025-05-07 10:17
Wednesday is the day of central banks. Decisions will be made by the Polish Monetary Policy Council and the American Federal Open Market Committee. In anticipation of these decisions, currency markets operated peacefully.
In the afternoon, the decision of the Monetary Policy Council is awaited, which after a nearly one and a half year break is to return to the reduction of interest rates. The market consensus requires you to expect cutting by 50 pb, but in fact almost every decision is possible here (maybe except for a foot increase). As usual, we do not know the time of publication of the council decision. At the same time, the market values a reduction by as much as 75 PB. – that is, the same scale as in September 2023.
– For the zloty ratings, both the scale of the NBP rate reduction and the message of the message after the MPC meeting will be very important. Perhaps this will allow you to verify the highly optimistic market valuations of the scale of this year's foot reductions, which in recent weeks have clearly pregnant gold – wrote PKO BP analysts in the morning note.
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In addition, in the evening (at 20:00 Polish time) we will know the message from the Federal Open Market Committee. Both the market and economists assume that the rate of federal funds will be maintained at an unchanged level. Here, however, the key conference of Jerome Powell and the scale of its “pigeonity” will be crucial. The market is expecting a 25-point rate reduction in the USA at the latest for the July FOMC meeting.
In anticipation of these events, the euro exchange rate behaved quite calmly, remaining at the level of PLN 4.2724 after an increase of nearly a penny recorded on Tuesday. From a technical point of view of Eurozłoty, they remain in a narrow side trend with a range of PLN 4.25-4.30. Only a permanent breakup of one of these levels would expect more variability and stronger up (more likely) or down.
The situation on the main currency pair of the world remained without major changes. EUR/USD exchange rate “rests” after a spring rally, which took him from less than 1.04 to over 1.15. On Wednesday in the morning of the euro it was valued at $ 1.1362. On the Polish market, this meant a dollar after PLN 3,7574, i.e. by 0.7 grosze more expensive than the day before.
The Swiss Frank was almost unchanged after PLN 4.5,528. We have been observing stabilization similar to the one on the EUR/PLN exchange rate for a month. Looking wider, it is only a plate correction of the April wave of fortification of the Helweck currency, which with impetus left the winter inheritance trend.
KK
