The main short -term risk is the relegation in the category not recommended to the investments, says the head of the association of the most titled economists
Budget deficit, photo: Yann Song Tang / Panthermedia / Profimedia
An additional question introduced in the monthly survey that the Chartered Financial Analysts (CFA) Romania Association, the Investment Professional Organization, has been referring to the anticipations regarding the relegation of Romania in the rating category not recommended (“Junk”).
Thus, according to the results, 82% of the participants anticipate the maintenance, in the next 12 months, Romania in the rating category recommended for investments, while 18% anticipate a relegation in the category not recommended (“junk”).
From a statistical point of view, when the prospect of an issuer is revised to “negative”, in one of three cases it is relegated in the next 12 months.
Also, the weaker the rating (eg BBB-, BB+), the higher the risk of relegation after a negative perspective.
Adrian Codirlașu, CFA – president of the CFA Romania Association states: “In the context of unsustainable twin deficits, the main short -term risk for Romania's economy is the risk of relegation in the category not recommended (” junk “). This risk is closely related to the necessary fiscal consolidation, requested by the rating agencies, to bring the budget deficit in the sustainability area within a reasonable time. ”
The macroeconomic trust indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in March by 7.3 points to 43.9 points. This situation was due exclusively to increase the anticipation component of the indicator, while the current component has remained relatively similar to the value registered in the previous exercise.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12 -month horizon (April 2026) reduced compared to the value recorded in March and reached the level of 4.65%.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, about 79% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu over the next 12 months, and the rest of a course stagnation. Thus the average value of the anticipations for the 6 -month horizon is 5.0311 lei for one euro, while for the 12 -month horizon, the average value of the EUR/RON in the anticipated RON is 5.0735 lei for one euro.
Regarding the evolution of prices of residential properties in cities, 61% of participants, anticipate a stagnation in the next 12 months, while 29% anticipate a decrease. Also 74% of participants believe that current prices are over-evaluated, and 21% are correctly evaluated.
The deficit of the state budget forecast for the year 2025 remained similar to the previous exercise at the average value of the anticipations of 7.4% of GDP.
The anticipations of economic growth for the year 2025 are, decreasing from the previous exercise, at the average value of 1.0%, there are also opinions among the participants regarding a possible entry into the Romanian economy.
Public debt calculated as a percentage in GDP is anticipated to increase to 58% in the next 12 months
