Warning of the International Monetary Fund. Why Eastern European countries will be more affected by commercial war
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the impact of American customs taxes on economic growth will be significant in the European Union, and Eastern European countries will be more strongly affected as a result of their major addiction to the processing industry, reports the EFE agency, quoted by Agerpres.
The director of the European Department of the IMF, Alfred Kammer, said in a press conference on Friday that the commercial war will lead to a “significant reduction” of economic growth in the EU and which is estimated by the IMF to 1.2% this year and to 1.5% in 2026, forecasts revised declining from those communicated in October.
However, the significant volume of investments expected for infrastructure and defense, especially in Germany, will help compensate for the effects of customs duties.
“The more trade, the better”
But these effects will be felt most in Central, Eastern and Southeast Europe, a space in which the IMF also includes countries outside the EU, such as Serbia, the Republic of Moldova and Albania.
For this area, the IMF forecasts an economic growth of 2.4% this year and 2.7% in 2026, percentages over those forecast for the EU, but whose review has undergone a more consistent decrease compared to the community block, taking into account the “weight of the manufacturing sector in these countries”, the IMF official explained.
The International Monetary Fund also warns the collateral effects for Europe resulting from the separate commercial war between the US and China, as it could lead to “an increase in imports from China equivalent to about 0.25% of the EU short-term GDP”, but the impact of these diverted commercial flows “seems to have a management”.
As for the recommendations for Europe, Alfred Kammer has reaffirmed the IMF opinion that there would be a need for increased integration within the EU, including by strengthening an internal market without commercial barriers. “The more trade, the better,” the representative of the IMF, who praised the efforts of Brussels to quickly conclude new exchange agreements with different countries and regions to diversify and strengthen the supply chains.
The United States imposed, in a first stage, 25% customs duties on steel, aluminum, vehicles and components of the auto industry, regardless of the country of origin. The EU states approved on April 9 a set of retrival fees between 10% and 25% on a series of American products – from motorcycles, to soy or poultry.
In the second stage, US President Donald Trump announced on April 2, customs duties consisting of a 10% basic fee for all imports (except for those already charged with 25% and exceptions regarding energy products, semiconductors, etc.), to which for dozens of countries are added additional customs duties according to their commercial taxes. USA.
For the products imported from the EU countries, the customs taxes charged by the US have reached 20%. For the products imported by the US from China, the percentage of customs taxes announced by Trump was initially 34%, to which were added the 20% taxes previously imposed, therefore 54%, reaching 145% after they were supplemented in a mutual reprisal.
But Trump declared on April 9 that he suspends additional customs duties for 90 days, so those who exceed the 10%basic level, except those applied to China, after many countries have applied for negotiations with Washington.
As a result of this announcement, in order to give a chance to the negotiations now in progress, the European Commission has also decided to suspend for 90 days the customs duties agreed on April 9 by the EU states as reprisals for the 25% customs taxes imposed by the US last month for imports of steel, aluminum, vehicles and components of the auto industry. Suspended by Trump being only the others that exceed the basic level of 10%, ie in the case of EU supplemented customs duties up to 20%.
