According to Stojanowski, a good example of the prevailing uncertainty was Wednesday's stock market session in the USA.
“First there were signals of possible softening of customs duties on China, which improved the moods, but the later dementia from the administration in Washington slightly cooled the enthusiasm from the initial phase of the session. Such variability only confirms that peace is rather apparent” – Stojanowski assessed.
According to the expert “The situation is far from normal“.
“Just a few weeks ago we watched strong declines, and now we have sudden reflections. These types of fluctuations – both -digit both ways – They don't testify to stability. The market functioning in such conditions cannot be considered healthy, and For business, instability is the worst possible scenario” – noted the interlocutor of PAP.
If something can actually bring some stabilization on the market, it will be, in the opinion of Stojanowski, “The current season of publication of the results of companies“.
“It will last until the beginning of June. If the reports turn out to be better than expectations, the moods can improve,” said the analyst.
However, he noted, “There is still a shadow of political uncertainty above everything, because one unfavorable message from Washington is enough and all this optimism can fall apart“.
Referring to media leaks talking about the influence of Wall Street on the decisions of the US President Donald Trump's administration, Stojanowski expressed the view that “It is impossible to clearly determine whether Trump has limited activities under the influence of financial environments, but it is difficult to rule out the existence of informal communication channels“.
“It is a policy full of controversy – Some decisions can reconcile the interests of large business groups, which certainly have ways to try to influence the White House” – emphasized the expert.
“The independence of the central bank is the foundation of a healthy economy – and this foundation has recently been violated. Public attacks of the president on the head of Fed Jerome Powell, calling him a loser, and then withdrawing from these words, introduced great uncertainty. It is difficult to remember the equally open conflict between the president of the USA and the Fed in recent decades,” noted Stojanowski.
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In his opinion “Markets and investors tolerate chaos badly – and this is not lacking lately“.
“In public space there is a lack of consistency, decisions are variable, messages contradictory. Money likes silence – this is a well -known saying in the world of finance. Meanwhile, the current information and decision chaos means that even a temporary calming down does not give investors a sense of security” – noted Stojanowski.
