Pope Francis is dead. Which cardinal will become his successor?
The conclave it will choose new leader of the Catholic Churchyou can expect from two to three weeks after the funeral of the Pope, when the College of Cardinals gathers in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican to start a top secret process of choosing a new pope.
Theoretically, any baptized male Catholic can apply for a papacy, but Over the past 700 years, the Pope has always been elected from among cardinals. Bookmakers and observers of the Vatican began to speculate about the potential successors some time ago, when the health of the pope deteriorated. And yet the selection of the winner is not easy. During the conclave in 2013, Jorge Bergoglio was not a favorite to replace Benedict XVI. And yet, after 24 hours and five rounds of voting, he became Pope Francis.
The stake of the new pope's selection is extremely high. The next pope will inherit a deeply divided church, struggling with ideological tensions In matters such as the integration of LGBTQ+ people and abuse of clergy, as well as moving in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, torn by territorial and cultural conflicts. Here are some of the key names that we will probably hear most often in the coming weeks.
Is it time for Italians to regain the papacy? From among 266 popes 217 came from Italy – But the last three were born away from the Vatican.
Italian cardinal Pietro Parolin (70 years old), Secretary of the Vatican State and number 2 Francis from 2013.can be seen as his natural successor. The Eugansk Parolin, as one of the close circle of Cardinals, Franciszek, was designed to reform the Pope and was the driving force of diplomacy.
Pietro Parolini during the mass on the 20th anniversary of the death of John Paul II. Vatican, April 2, 2025
He played a key role in restoring relations between the Holy See and China and signing the agreement on the joint appointment of Chinese bishops with Beijing. Moderate, perceived by his critics as progressivehe adopted a surprisingly large role during the Pope's illness, leading a prayer session about his recovery. By some, this was seen as an inappropriate manifestation of the campaign against the conclave.
Parolin is considered excessively bureaucratic, deprived of charisma and the ability to make contactwhich characterized the deceased pope. This may turn out to be the Achilles heel, next to the lack of pastoral experience. Some already hope for a Parolin candidacy in the embryo, and depending on who he is talking to, he is perceived as a Trojan horse for progressivism or conservatism.
Report of the Cardinals College, a review of cardinals' positions developed by conservative journalists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagn, presents him as a “subtle” progress, capable of moving Franciszek's radicalism closer to the mainstream. Meanwhile, a more progressive church official told Politico that Parolin is “a very modest and very gentle person, but because of his gentleness People do not see that he is much more conservative than the Pope'
He is another Italian claimant Cardinal Pizza pizzaballa from Lombardy, Latin patriarch of Jerusalem. The 60-year-old could benefit from nostalgia among Italian cardinals for the return of one of their compatriots to the highest position. Pizzaballa – who has lived in the Holy Land for over three decades, knows Hebrew and admitted that he is talking to Hamas “necessity” – is an authority in the Middle East, which can be an advantage.
Christmas celebrations under the leadership of the Latin Patriarch Jerusalem, Cardinal Pizza pizzaballi. Bethlehem, December 25, 2024
He has an honest opinion, he was promoted quickly thanks to the Franciszek line views on environmental protection and interreligious dialogue. To a large extent, he stayed away from public disputes in the Church about the church doctrine, which makes him an little -known person, but conservatives are not very hostile to him, because he supports the Latin mass.
Still, he would be quite young for the popebecause cardinals are reluctant to choose a leader who will probably remain alive for several decades.
Outside the Old World
Francis was the first non-European who headed the Catholic Church, from the time of Syria from Grzegorz III in the VIII century. He was also the first pope from the Americas.
If the Cardinal College sets a candidate from outside Europe again, The favorite can be Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle. The 67-year-old former Archbishop of Manila shares Franciszek's opinion on social justice and the fight against poverty. He was a loud critic of out -of -court executions that took place in his country under the former president Rodrigo Duterte, during which several thousand people were killed, in accordance with the allegations of the International Criminal Court, where the trial is currently taking place.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle during a conference in the church of Pentecost. Sopot, March 8, 2025
The church can also make a historical election of the first African pope in the modern era. It is said again about Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghanaconsidered one of the favorites during the conclave in 2013. Currently, 76-year-old Turkson was appointed by Benedict XVI as the chairman of the Pontifical Council of Justice and Peace. His choice would be a breakthrough, but Controversy can reduce his chances. In an interview of 2013, he suggested that children's sexual abuse is less common in Africa due to traditional cultural protection. A year earlier, he apologized for showing a film warning against the spread of Islam in Europe during the Synod of Bishops.
Francis significantly changed the geographical balance of the cardinal college, appointing more cardinals from poorer regions, in the past insufficiently represented at the highest levels of the churchwhich can play an important role in the process of choosing the next pope.
Cardinal Peter Turkson in the Basilica of St. Piotr. Vatican, August 27, 2022
As a result For many cardinals, communication has become more difficultsince Francis abolished their regular meetings in Rome. To some extent, this strengthened the position of the so -called Curial cardinals who live in an eternal city and can talk to each other easier. Some say that this can give an advantage to Italian cardinals that are the majority of clergy in Rome. But these cardinals can also turn against each other when they no longer have to present the united front around Francis.
In addition, Franciszek's moves aimed at hindering the clergy to call in Rome caused the creation of new power centersespecially among the rapidly growing population of Catholics in developing economies, with powerful conferences of bishops in Asia, Africa and Latin America, as Politico says the already quoted church high -level clerk. Influential leaders belong Congress Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu And Brazilian Jaime Spengler, chairman of the Brazilian Bishops conference, who represents the largest Catholic congregation in the world.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besung during a mass on the occasion of the Synod of Bishops in the Basilica of Saint Peter. Vatican, October 13, 2023
– The curia seems strong, but when leaders from different continents come to the conclave, they will have something to say – reveals the church official and adds that Rome is no longer a “convergent point” for church intrigues.
These different blocks are able to communicate with each other easily and They will be a challenge for those who are looking for the European successor Franciszek. Many European cardinals can also support characters from Asia, Africa and Latin America.
Arch -conservatists
During 12 years of performing the function of the Pope Francis He enraged the conservative wing of the Catholic Church, which in turn became more and more radical – especially in the United States.
The actual leader of this conservative opposition was 76-year-old Cardinal Raymond Burke, who has worked out with Francis many times because of his program, allegedly “Woke”. He considers the Church to be “too feminized”. However, he is seen more as a conservative figurehead than a candidate with opportunities for the papacy.
Cardinal Raymond Burke blesses the faithful after the rosary night service for the health of Pope Francis. Vatican, February 26, 2025
Another character with many years of experience, Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdoseems to be a more likely candidate. Erdo was mentioned as a potential successor in 2013 and was praised by the right -wing Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban. Erdo represents a more traditionalist vision of the Church, focused on Europe and remains in the circle of conservatives expecting the course of the course of the course.
Conservative chances depend on the composition of the Cardinals College. It would seem that since Francis appointed 110 of 138 cardinals who would be entitled to choose his successor, Return to more hard conservatism is unlikely.
Cardinal Peter Erdo during the Easter mass at the Basilica in Ostrzyhom, April 20, 2025.
However, several of the cardinals appointed by Francis came from developing countries with more conservative views, while Others may leave his liberalism after his death.
As always, before white smoke appears over the Vatican, candidates for the pope I have to walk on a winding path.
