Five indications that the US and China are approaching a military conflict, identified by a former NATO commander: “The risk of an open war”
The American admiral in retreat James Stavridis warns of five key factors that can trigger an open conflict between the US and China, against the background of the increasingly tense commercial war.
Indications that the US and China could enter a photo conflict. Shutterstock
Tensions between the United States and China have gone from simple hypotheses about a “new cold war” to concrete realities of a commercial war. Recently, the two powers have announced the imposition of increasingly harsh rates against each other. Although there is the hope of an advantageous agreement, “big and beautiful“As President Donald Trump said, the risk of lasting economic break is real.
Former Supreme Commander of NATO and current Bloomberg analyst, James Stavridis retreats warn that “We have already passed the stage where I was talking about a “new cold war” and I entered the early stages of a true commercial war“But the real stake could be much more dangerous: a possible military war.
Based on its long experience in the Pacific region, Stavridis identifies five warning signals, which could announce a direct military confrontation:
Cyber attacks
China uses its advanced technological capabilities to attack the critical US infrastructure. The best known program, “Volt Typhoon”, was discussed even in a secret meeting in December between American and Chinese authorities. According to the Wall Street Journal, the attacks targeted “ports, water networks, airports and other essential infrastructures”.
Another program, “Typhoon Salt”, focuses on US telecommunications. China shows not only that it has the ability to carry a sophisticated cyber war, but also the will to do it. “If the extent and consequences of these attacks increase the risk of an open war in proportion”, Warns Stavridis.
Military pressure on Taiwan
The number of Chinese air incursions in the Taiwan Air Defense Identification area (ADIZ) exceeded 3,000 last year, almost double compared to 2023.
“Believe me, Admiral Sam Paparo, the US Indo-Pacific Forces commander in Honolulu, receives reports about these flights daily. And we should be careful“Says Stavridis.
Tensions in the South China Sea
China bases its territorial claims on the expeditions of a fifteenth-century admiral, although these claims were rejected in the international courts. However, Beijing has built at least seven artificial islands, nicknamed “The big wall of sand”, Which he uses as a naval base to intimidate neighboring countries, especially Philippines.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. collaborates closely with the US, offering access to the American army at the bases near the Chinese coast. The intensified activity of Chinese navy and guard in this region is a clear indicator of a possible conflict.
The construction of military ships
China produces between 20 and 30 war vessels a year, already having a more large fleet than the US, over 360 battle vessels than about 300 Americans. China's declared goal is to exceed 400 ships. “Beijing knows that a possible war with the US will mainly behave on the sea”Stavridis says. The rhythm of naval constructions is thus a clear indication of preparation for a possible conflict.
Commercial war and tariffs
“Perhaps the most dangerous signal is the already in progress: the level and the extent of the rates imposed by each side“, Stavridis warns. He recalls that World War II began in the Pacific after severe commercial sanctions imposed on Japan, which was thus devoid of vital resources such as oil, steel and rubber.
China begins to limit the export of essential strategic minerals, where it has a global monopoly, which can trigger hard reactions from the US. “China's answers to American rates will be the fifth key indicator of an imminent conflict“Adds the Admiral.
James Stavridis wrote the book “2034: A Novel of the Next World War“, A fictional scenario about how a minor incident in the South China Sea could escalate into a devastating war.”It was not a prophecy, but a warning.“
“History spins on small hinges“He concludes.”We need to be careful about these five yellow lights – cyber attacks, taiwan incursions, tensions in the South China Sea, Naval Construction and Tariff War – because if they make tomatoes, they can extinguish the lights worldwide.”, Warns Stavridis.
