The Union does not have to lose on the duties from the USA. An economist with the weakness of the Trump plan
Donald Trump announces the great duties on the states with which the United States maintain trade relations. Marek Zuber assessed that Europe, however, can eliminate possible losses by increasing internal consumption. “If we reduce sales to the United States with increased consumption on the Old Continent, we will not necessarily suffer big losses. Of course, this is not so simple. For now, we have a worse economic situation than the United States, although the last weeks bring some signs of improvement, also in Poland” – said the economist.
Quoted fragment of the program under the video:
He also pointed out that data on the trade balance between the EU and the US may seem misleading, because some of the goods do not come from these places. “What we sell in the United States or what Americans sell in Europe are really products from China. So we still have an element from China, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, from other parts of the world” – pointed out Zuber.
He gave an example of trade in electronic devices. “Apple sells something in Europe, here settles (…), but in fact the sale of this phone is the import of this phone from China,” he said. And such transactions, according to the economist, illustrate that the duties will not affect the entire commercial balance.
Marek Zuber drew attention to the importance of China in the context of global commercial tensions. “China is a key player in this puzzle. The automotive industry is particularly important, which plays a huge role in the largest economy of Europe – Germany. Last year a lot happened, but now the question is: what will it look like in the context of duties and competition with China? Are the customs imposed by the US enough? Or maybe you will need further actions? ” – the expert wondered.
Influence of customs duties on Poland: inflation and export industries
Poland, although not a key trade partner for the United States, will also feel the effects of duties. According to Zuber, their impact will be small. “As for the increase in prices resulting from American duties, of course it will also take place in Poland. However, the scale of this growth will be relatively small, because the United States is not our most important trading partner” – explained Zuber. He added, however, that some sectors may be more exposed to the effects of trade changes: “The furniture or automotive industry may feel a decrease in sales in the United States. Poland is an important supplier of parts and software for the German automotive industry, so if the Germans feel the effects of duties, it will also affect our producers ” – said the economist.
Europe needs its own technologies
The expert also noticed the need to develop European technologies competitive to American giants such as Amazon or Google. “Until you ask Europe to create its own technological products competing with American giants. We lack the equivalent of Twitter or other social media” – emphasized Zuber. In his opinion, the creation of such platforms could be a step towards becoming independence from American technology companies.
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Onet in the morning. Financially is a weekly program in which Business Insider journalists talk to invited experts of the business world and politics about current events and issues related to the Polish economy, public finances and the impact of politics on the wallets of every Pole.
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