“Trump loses patience with Putin.” President of Finland: Together with Poland we have the greatest artillery forces in Europe
Ibrahim Naber: Mr. President, he visited Mr. Donald Trump in Mar-a-Lago. You spent a lot of time together in the golf course. What did you learn about President Trump's plan regarding the end of the war in Ukraine?
Aleksander Stubb: I left with the feeling that the President of the United States was losing his patience to Russia and President Putin.
Donald Trump the next day also made a few rather sharp statements at Putin.
Did Trump say that he would give more pressure on Russia?
We will see what the next days will bring. I can only say what I recommended [prezydentowi USA]. And my recommendation was to determine the rigid deadline for suspension of weapons, i.e. 20 April. I had two reasons for this.
First, Easter is approaching. Secondly, it's the third month after his [Trumpa] inauguration. So symbolically it would be quite useful. But this must be combined with a huge package of sanctions if Russia does not comply with a full, unconditional suspension of weapons.
[Republikański senator] Lindsey Graham played with us Golf. He developed a quite solid sanction package with the Blimenthale Senator, which will now be presented to the US Congress.
Recently, you said that it's time to be “hard and not soft” towards Russia.
It always works. I think we have to show strength. This is the only thing Putin understands. If he proves to be a weakness or submission, he will use it.
What exactly could make Putin to hang a weapon?
Sanctions and American leadership. This is the only thing that can do it. Putin respects strength because he is afraid of her. If he shows her, he will subordinate himself.
“For me, the matter is simple”
In the first days of the Russian invasion in 2022, you attempted to stop the war by contacting Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. What was his answer?
At that time, I was a modest professor at the European University Institute in Florence and completely abandoned politics. However, I still had a Lavrach number. I wrote to him on February 27, 2022: “Sergei, it has gone too far. Please, stop this madness. You are the only person who can affect this.”
His answer was quite cynical, it was: “Do you mean Biden or Zelanski?” This is typical for Lavrov. I have known him for many years. And of course there was a long exchange of sentences, in which he largely defended the Russian narrative about the war. Then I realized that there was no way to retreat and that Ukraine must fight.
France and Great Britain are currently proposing to send European soldiers to Ukraine to secure the future peace agreement. Is this a reliable agent of Russia?
I don't think that was the goal [wysłania zachodnich wojsk do Ukrainy]. First, the weapon must be suspended, although it should be remembered that this does not mean the end of the war.
Weapon suspension must be monitored. Then there is a peace agreement. And the peace agreement is associated with the maintenance of peace.
For me, the matter is simple: the greatest responsibility rests with Ukrainians. The Ukrainian army has 800,000 men and women. This is the most modern, most efficient and the most experienced army in the world.
In addition, there would be some support from Europe. But the final support should come from the United States, because I believe that American security guarantees are still the strongest.
Would you be ready to send Finnish soldiers as part of the European peace forces in Ukraine?
Remember that Finland has a 1340 km border with Russia. We should think properly about the border, which begins in North Lapland, Norway and extends 5000 km through the Baltic States to Ukraine.
Each of us has different duties. European land forces would consist of 20 thousand. up to 60 thousand soldiers. It will not [wysłanie zachodnich wojsk do Ukrainy] It was more important.
This issue has become a symbolic debate that completely deviated from the course. There are many other ways in which we can support Ukraine. Sending land forces is currently not on the table [w przypadku Finlandii].
“Russia follows this course”
You hope for a much greater involvement of the German government in the future. What are your expectations?
My expectations are high. We have heard about the “turning point” [z niem. Zeintewende]which sometimes – I admit – more like slalom.
We have recently witnessed an important Bundestag decision to increase defense expenses. We will also deal with the definite leadership of the future Chancellor Merz. He is extremely pro -European. He knows how to deal with Russia. He is a transatlantist.
Many of us currently have high hopes with a tar. In many respects – without exerting too much pressure on him – I would say that he is at a kind of moment of Helmut Kohl. I think that this is what we all expect from him when it comes to power.
You spent four years by writing a book about a new world order, which is defined by the triangle: Global West, Global East and Global South. Should this categorization be revised in the light of the fact that the new US administration is striving to get closer with Russia?
The global West wants to keep at least the remains of the previous world order, because it is in its interest. The global east, headed by China, wants to change it – Russia follows this course. And the actual decision about which direction the world tilted will be finally made by the global noon.
Together with the new US administration, which is more transactional and perhaps slightly less involved in alliances, various scenarios may appear. However, I do not think that foreign policy is binary. This is not a “or-albo” situation.
I think that we, Europeans, must convince the United States that multilateralism is good. And if they want [Amerykanie] Keep your role in the world leader – and in my opinion they want – and if they intend to oppose China – and I think they will do it – they need allies. So I maintain my thesis.
“Europe should not take it to itself”
Is rapprochement with Russia also a plan for the future for Europe?
In the long run, but it will depend on many issues. Will the weapon suspension? When will peace negotiations begin? I think that we are currently in a phase, in which we have a consensus among European leaders, that at some point there will be a rapprochement – but this must occur in close cooperation with allies.
And in my humble opinion this should be done in strict coordination with France, Great Britain and German.
At the moment Trump and his government behave more like a rival of Europe. The US president has just imposed customs duties on Europe. How should the EU react?
Europe should not take it to itself. Many people are very angry and I understand why. But this is not a good idea for a foreign policy, you need to separate emotions from it and focus on the situation we are dealing with.
US President Donald Trump (illustrative photos)
I would not say that the US is behaving like an EU opponent. What they do is “America First” [z ang. polityka “Ameryka Przede Wszystkim”]. Therefore, my recommendation is: let's work on the fact that Europe is in second place in the USA.
You ran a campaign to admit Finland to NATO. Now there are serious doubts in Europe as to the credibility of Art. 5. Under the new US administration. Are you really convinced that Trump would send American troops to defend the Finnish border city, such as Nirala or another border city in Estonia?
I am really convinced that the United States will remain involved in NATO and remain attached to art. 5. Because it is in their best interest. It is not without reason that the United States has concluded a defensive agreement with Finland, which generally allows them to store a large amount of equipment and military materials in Finland.
There is a reason why thousands of American soldiers train here [w Finlandii] with Finnish soldiers – with sea forces and other units. The United States recognized the strategic value of Finland.
Finland, Sweden and Norway protect the northern flank. We also secure [Finowie] 1340-kilometer border with Russia. So if it is in the interest of the United States to defend us as part of the alliance – and so – I am not worried about it.
“Together with Poland we have the greatest artillery forces in Europe”
Finland-like Germany-ordered American f-35 fighters. Did you think about canceling this order?
NO. Why should we do this? Military planning extends to the future for decades. And let's not forget that the United States, including their president, are also about business. Europe orders twice as many equipment from the American defense industry than the United States themselves. I plan to personally participate in the delivery of the first F-35 jet-I hope that together with the President of the United States, this fall.
I asked about the fighter, because the US government has been openly at risk of invasion of Greenland for weeks – it has not ruled out the use of military force.
I think they exclude [Amerykanie] Use of military force. To be honest, for Finland, the matter is quite simple: Greenland is part of the kingdom of Denmark, and the future of Greenland belongs to the Greenlanders themselves.
The German army and intelligence services urgently warn against the new Russian attack on Europe over the next three to four years. How do you assess the Russian threat to your country and Germany?
First of all, we do not have a direct military threat on the part of Russia. And there is a reason for this. We have obligatory military service. It was completed by 900,000 men and women – including me. My son graduated from last summer.
We have 62 F/A-18 fighters. We have 64 F-35 aircraft ordered. We have long -range missiles on land, sea and air. Together with Poland we have the greatest artillery forces in Europe. So we are prepared. My recommendation for all types of threats is as follows: let's stop predicting the future because we don't know what will happen. So let's focus on strengthening our army, buying military equipment, building a strong defense – then nothing bad will happen.
