“Threat to the whole of NATO”. Estonian general about the Ultimatum of Moscow. Putin has a way to overturn the table

– Moscow can bring troops to the border and put an ultimatum. If we are not ready then, what will we do? We will prevent the war if we give up – says Herrem, referring to the possibility for Moscow to question art. 5. North Atlantic Treaty, which talks about mutual help of allies.

“The expansion of military potential will encourage Vladimir Putin to take further military actions”

The situation for the Baltic States can become particularly dangerous at the time of suspension of war in Ukraine.

– Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers will stop fighting. Russia's resources and resources will accumulate elsewhere – he explains Herem in an interview with Die Welt.

Continued article under video material

Since the end of active military service, the general has been working in Milrek Robotics, an Estonian arms company that develops and produces unmanned ground vehicles. He estimates the current daily Russian military production at:

• 80 Shahid assault drones,
• 2500 FPV drones (First Person View, i.e. controlled from a first -person perspective);
• 40 reconnaissance drones;
• three maneuvering missiles;
• and three ballistic missiles.

According to the Estonian general, Russia is also able to produce from 50 to 120 bombs gliding a month and three million artillery shells a year.

– Russia will have over 10,000 at its disposal. Shahid assault drones within six months. This is a pace that should not be underestimated – says Herem.

The model of this unmanned aircraft was developed by Iran. Tehran initially supplied this weapon of Russia, and now Moscow has largely taken over the production of this type of weapon, based on Iranian patterns.

Herem is afraid that this expansion of military potential will encourage Vladimir Putin to take further military actions if he manages to suspend the fight in Ukraine on his terms, and Russia will not be held responsible for his aggression.

The US reaction may be late

In the light of Trump's statements regarding Ukraine, which comply with the Kremlin's propaganda, the question arises whether the decisions of the US President are based on a solid and thoughtful strategy. If Trump operates on the basis of unbelievable information, it can lead to problems with NATO defense.

Herrem believes that in the event of a possible conflict, time is the most important. The general is afraid that due to the uncertain USA of the USA of the new president, Washington's reaction may be late.

Meelis OIDSAL has worked for over 20 years at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, recently as a deputy secretary general. Currently, he is the editor -in -chief of the magazine devoted to the security of “The Baltic Sentinel” and co -hosting the program “Security Today” on the television channel of the daily “Postimees”.

In his opinion, Trump's threats regarding the withdrawal of American troops from Europe and the annexation of Greenland or Canada only deepened uncertainty among allies.

– In this situation, it should be expected that Trump will at some point decide to significantly reduce the American contingent in Europe and that this will have a very direct impact on collective defense in the Baltic States – says OIDSAL.

In his opinion, Europe must prepare for such an eventuality and fill the gaps in the abilities that arose as a result of relying in the USA.

“Ukraine is an introduction”

Estonian defense minister Hanno Pevkur is also afraid that Russia will spread the army near Estonia, Finland and the Baltic States, if the war in Ukraine is frozen or ended. According to Pevkura, the reform of the Russian Armed Forces provides for the distribution in the region of such units as the 44th Army Corps, the 6th Army of Connected forces (Aviation and Air Defense) and the 69th Motorized Rifle Division.

– The fact is that they can pose a clear threat not only to Estonia, but for the entire Baltic region, Finland and all of NATO – said Pevkur at a press conference at the end of March.

Herema's successor as a commander of the Estonian defense forces, General of Division Andrus Merilo, said that the direct threat from Russia is currently low because Putin's army is tied up in Ukraine. However, Russia can arrange from 250,000 up to 300 thousand soldiers near the Baltic States after a short break in the fighting.

For Merilo it is clear that “Ukraine has never been the only strategic goal of Russia.”

– It was [pełnoskalowa inwazja na Ukrainę] rather an introduction to achieving her [Moskwy] strategic goals through possible military activities against European countries – he adds.

In connection with the busy security situation, the Estonian government decided to increase defense expenses to at least five percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) from 2026. Last year, Estonia took second place among 32 NATO members with 3.4 percent. – For Poland and before the USA.

Talin tries to improve his defense skills. For example, last summer, Estonia announced that he would buy an ammunition worth EUR 1.6 billion (approx. EUR 6 billion 870 million, counting at the current exchange rate), but has not concluded appropriate contracts so far.

– We've got to feel that we are protected better than ever before. The problem is that in the Baltic countries we have overestimated our abilities – criticizes OIDSAL.

“Things are very bad”

General Herrem warns that although EU plans and individual countries, such as Estonia and Germany, regarding the increase in defense expenditure sound good, specific funds and investments still do not bring enough results.

Martin Herrem (illustration photos)Raigo Pajula / AFP / AFP

Estonia was the largest buyer of ammunition in Europe in 2023 – and not in terms of a resident or in relation to the gross domestic product.

– if we are the biggest buyers [amunicji]it means that things are very bad – we are much smaller economically than Germany – says Herem.

The general sees the main problem in defense of Europe, the Baltic countries and Estonia against possible Russian aggression – just like in Ukraine – in the threat of air. Frontal attacks can be repelled.

– But we must be able to defend ourselves against assault drones, ballistic missiles and maneuvering shells. It is not just about air defense, but about eliminating the attacker – says the four -star general.

The OIDSALA military expert, in turn, praises the role of NATO in defense of the Baltic States. Great Britain commands troops in Estonia, Canada in Latvia, and Germany in Lithuania.

– We have to look at the defense of the Baltic countries as a whole and I would say that Germany probably has the greatest contribution in terms of military. What they do – a brigade created in Lithuania, the cooperation of the defense industry with Lithuania – is impressive – he said.

Another problem in most NATO countries is the lack of military staff. Estonia introduced compulsory military service in 1992, a year after regaining independence. It also serves to train reservists, which are the core of the Estonian army, which currently consists of 7,100 active soldiers and 41,000. reservists. Estonia has only 1.37 million inhabitants – less than Warsaw.

Herem emphasizes that he is not talking about panic sowing.

“We shouldn't worry that Russia will attack, but that we are not prepared for it,” he says.

In his opinion, there is only one way to prevent war.

– You have to prepare so well that the enemy knows that we are prepared – sums up General Herem.