publication
2025-04-04 12:07
For the first time in almost three months we saw mass increases in fuel prices in Poland. Although on average they were not too large, it was enough for the national average gas price to return above PLN 6/l.
Unfortunately, what we wrote about a week ago were confirmed. The beginning of April brought the end of the inheritance trend of fuel prices lasting from mid -January. After ten weeks of decreases, the average retail prices of gasoline and diesel went slightly up. And so in the past week, a liter of PB95 gas cost on average PLN 6.01 And it was four grosze more expensive than a week earlier – according to BM Reflex data.
Of course, we will still find a station where we refuel for less than PLN 6/l. But the national average again exceeded six after just two weeks, when we could “enjoy” five on the front. Cosmetic increase (by 1 gr/l) to level 6.10 PLN/l It was recorded in the case of diesel. The average LPG retail price was 3.13 PLN/l And it was also a penny higher than a week ago.
The good news is that we refuel much cheaper than a year ago. The average retail price of PB95 at the beginning of April was 59 gr/l lower than 12 months ago, while diesel at that time caught 62 gr/l. Only autogas prices remain significantly at levels (i.e. 27 gr/l) higher than at the beginning of April 2024.
Prices in wholesale can change quickly
We are dealing with a very interesting situation on wholesale fuel markets. Those have been successively growing since mid -March, reacting to the increase in the rating of ready fuels on global stock exchanges. But only on Thursday New York gas contracts were overestimated by over 7% in response to the announcement of the introduction of draconian import duties to goods imported to the USA. This is not about gasoline itself (which the US is a net exporter), but about the risk of collapse in global trade and globally less fuel demand.
This situation coincided with the rapid weakness of the dollar in relation to the euro and zloty. The combination of a violent discount on fuel markets in combination with a strong drop in USD/PLN gave hope for a definite drop in prices in Polish refineries. Unfortunately, later the zloty strongly weakened after the announcements of the NBP President Adam Glapiński regarding the reduction of interest rates. Thus, the “pigeon volt” performed by the majority in the Monetary Policy Council means that we will pay more for gasoline, he or LPG than in a situation where monetary policy would remain unchanged.
For now, there are no significant changes in wholesale prices. On April 4, Orlen offered Eurosuper95 gas 4,685 PLN/m3, which after adding 23% VAT translated into PLN 5.76/l. It's only 2 gr/l cheaper than a week ago. Ekodiesel diesel was offered 4,731 PLN/m3, which after adding VAT gives almost 5.82 PLN/l, i.e. 5 gr/l less than at the end of March. This means that for now we can not expect a significant decrease in fuel prices at Polish stations. However, everything can change, if the zloty begins to make up for the losses, the dollar deepens the losses towards the euro or the markets will continue to be afraid of breaking the global supply chains thanks to American duties.
Let's not forget that fuels could be much cheaper were it not for the taxes imposed by the authorities. From each liter of gasoline purchased or diesel, over 40% goes into the hands of the state. For example, if the VAT rate was still 8%, gasoline could cost about 5.25 PLN/l, and diesel oil in PLN 5.30/l. In addition, the rulers could bear the “emission fee” introduced by their predecessors, which would reduce gross prices by another 10 gr/l.
