The August VAT increase is already reflected in inflation. What products have expensive the most

The increase of VAT from 19% to 21% from August 1, 2025 is already reflected in inflation, which increases by 2.1% compared to July, according to the data of the National Institute (INS).

Inflation increased by 2.1% in August. Photo archive

According to data published on Thursday by INS, the indexes of consumption prices in August 2025 compared to July 2025 was 102.10%.

The inflation rate from the beginning of the year (August 2025 compared to December 2024) was 8.1%.

The annual inflation rate in August 2025 compared to August 2024 was 9.9%.

The average rate of the modification of consumption prices in the last 12 months (September 2024 – August 2025) compared to the previous 12 months (September 2023 – August 2024) was 5.7%.

Compared to August of last year, inflation was last 8.95%, the non-food goods expensive with 10.48%, the food ones by 8.92%, and the services with 9.85%.

Among the food goods, in August, the bad fruits 41.73%, cocoa and coffee-19%, 11%, cow's milk, almost 10%, 9.45%bread, beef 8.85%and poultry meat 8.38%were expensive.

Regarding the services, most of the hygiene and cosmetics 19.27%, the train tickets 18.59%, water, channel and sanitation -13.21%, postal services 12.45%.

“It was calculated what is the impact of shocks of the nature of the offer with broad magnitude on inflation this year and on the adjusted core 2 inflation. Ove total 4 percentage points. This is the main reason why we couldn't even think of an interest rate reduction. That is why I used the broad word, a wide increase in inflation this year. Two percentage points from the liberalization of the electricity market on July 1. Looking at the index that appeared today, something more, 2.2 percentage points. The second major shock of VAT, on our calculations, on Headline inflation, IPC inflation, 1.6 percentage points and increased excise dives 0.4 percentage points. Four percentage points calculated last week, 4.2 – 4.3 percentage points according to the data we have today. And on the inflation Core 2 adjusted the impact is major. Three major shocks that will be resorbed in the next period if we avoid the side effects, the deterioration of inflationary expectations is not easy after such price increases. This is the forecast. We have a beautiful rooster, so to speak and she is really bigger. So, in September, when the peak will probably be, instead of 9, it will probably be around 9.6 – 9.7, the tip of inflation, followed by a gradual absorption of these shocks. Indeed, in our forecast, at the end of next year, inflation will not only enter the target range, but will be even lower than the forecast inflation in the previous round, in the previous inflation ratio“, Explained Mugur Isarescu, at the conference to present the quarterly report on the inflation on August 12.

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has increased to 8.8% inflation forecast for the end of 2025, “probably over 9%”from 4.6% previous, and anticipates that it will reach 3% at the end of 2026, compared with 3.4% in the previous forecast.