“Aligator Alcatraz” and a great, beautiful act threaten to a deficiency of employees in the USA
In June, the number of foreign employees in the US has decreased again, the American government informed, which means the third month in a row of inheritance, despite the fact that employers opposed their expectations and created a total of 147 thousand. new jobs.
Representatives of the White House say that this decline will not negatively affect the economy, because Trump's “megaust” will encourage more Americans to work. Many economists do not agree with this opinion, predicting that the exacerbation of immigration policy will hurt the labor market.
Now, when the deportations of President Donald Trump are beginning to be visible in economic data, we will soon see who is right.
Economists believe that with the sudden end of the immigration wave in the Biden era, the labor market profitability threshold, i.e. the number of jobs that enterprises must create to maintain unemployment at a constant level. Even if the unemployment rate stays at the current level of 4.1 percent, the slowdown in employment will be an obstacle to the economy. Among the people who recently warn against slowing down economic growth, is the president of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell.
– If the labor market slows down, we should expect a slowdown in economic growth – said Daniel Zhao, chief economist and senior manager in the Glassdoor Economic Research Team [ang. Szklane drzwi].
Trump and leading administration officials attribute the expansion of the labor market during the presidency of Joe Biden to the uncontrolled influx of undocumented immigrants through the southern border. Trump has reversed this tendency at the focal point of his second term, ordering politically explosive raids to jobs through immigration and customs services, and planning to create new detention centers and exacerbate border control. On Tuesday, he visited the center for illegal immigrants in Florida, called “Aligator Alcatraz”.
– We need more agents to arrest them. We need more beds to stop them. We also need more transport contracts to take them out of the country – said the so -called Trump borders tsar, Tom Homan. – This act will give us more funds so that we can do more great things that the Trump administration does.
Protest against the raids of ICE migration services in the USA, New York, USA, June 10, 2025.
Decrease in detention and a decrease in the number of employees
So far, immigration policy has not weakened the labor market. However, there are signs that the inflow of employees who are of key importance for American employers are beginning to weaken. The number and participation of employees born abroad have fallen since Trump's return to the office. The number of migrants detention by law enforcement agencies on the southwestern border-statistics often used as an indicator of the level of illegal immigration-it has fallen sharply.
Stephen Miran, the chief economist of Trump and chairman of his council of economic advisors, rejects this consensus, claiming in an interview that there is sufficient supply of employees born in the United States who can fill the gap. The unemployment rate among employees aged 20 to 24 is over eight percent. – i.e. about twice as much as the national average – and over 14 percent Teenagers of working age remains unemployed.
Miran added that the main elements of the President's Tax Act, including the abolition of overtime taxes, are aimed at increasing the supply of available working strength. The workshop pool could also increase if the legislation prompted the unemployed – or employed below their qualifications – using Medicaid [darmowego ubezpieczenia zdrowotnego dla osób, których dochody nie wystarczają na opłacenie go samodzielnie] to return to the labor market.
“It is a mistake to think that we do not have a national substitute for immigrants,” said Miran. – There is a large supply of workforce that is waiting for appropriate incentives for companies to hire them – and that they can work – But they will never come, if the unlimited influx of people from outside the United States is simply ensured, ready to work for slave remuneration He said.
Risk of overheating of the economy
Despite this, Economists of Deutsche Bank informed their clients this week that decreasing immigration can cause a decrease in the profitability threshold to just 50,000. jobs per month. These estimates comply with the opinion of the Labor Department officials who believe that this is necessary to prevent the increase in unemployment, and well below the huge total employment data outside agriculture, which some economists considered necessary to keep up with the growing population of immigrants during Biden's rule.
A slower increase in employment also means that the economy cannot develop so quickly without overheating. “Basic demographic data are not beneficial,” Adita Bhave, senior United States economist and managing director of Bank of America, told journalists on Tuesday. If immigration falls, “where will people go to work from?”
Miran admitted that uncertainty about administration policy can lead to “weaker results for some time”. However, the chairman CEA stated that “he does not perceive such weakness as signs of a deep economic problem.”
The problem of an aging society
Nevertheless Many economists say that immigrants are of key importance to balancing the effects of the aging of society. Even if in the first term of Trump the indicators of professional activity and unemployment among young adults have improved, it is not clear whether it is enough to meet demographic challenges that will appear in the event of a slowdown in net migration.
According to the Congress Budget Office, the population growth rate in the coming decades should be slowed down. In a separate analysis of 2024 carried out by an independent federal agency, it was estimated that the increase in immigration after pandemic will have a positive impact on economic results – although with a lower average wage increase – leaving inflation at virtually unchanged level.
The right -wing American Enterprise Institute has published studies on Wednesday, in which he forecasts that net migration to the United States can stabilize – or fall – in 2025, which in his opinion will cause a decrease in gross domestic product by 0.3-0.4 pp. from the hotel industry.
The head of the US central bank Jerome Powell indicated a decrease in the number of employees related to immigration as a potential obstacle to future economic growth. – A significant slowdown in the increase in the number of employees will slow down economic growth – said Fed president last month before the legislators.
– It is not up to us an assessment of immigration policy – he added. – Economic growth will be slowed down – and it actually slows down – and this is one of the reasons – he added.
