“Our forecasts did not work.” Putin in a blind street. He is afraid of the worst
Although the Kremlin maintains relations and with Jerusalem, and with Tehran, he did not expect Israel to take such a brave and dangerous step that undermines the survival of the Iranian regime. He also did not expect that US President Donald Trump, who calls himself a “conciliator”, would undergo the pressure of the Israeli Prime Minister Binjamin Netanyahu and would not intervene.
– Our forecasts have not clearly worked – says a retired Putin official. “And all our diplomatic efforts have failed,” he adds. The matter is very delicate. In Russia, you must not talk about failures, which is why the interlocutors of The Moscow Times from the Kremlin circles, fearing about their safety, speak anonymously. Their relationship surprises.
Israel conducted a series of raids on the infrastructure of its greatest rival, Iran, including anti -cancerous objects and infrastructure for the production of nuclear weapons, in response to the alleged Tehran actions aimed at the construction of nuclear weapons. The second week of the air war between these two countries caused the death of hundreds of people, including high -ranking members of the Iranian military command and civilians.
Israel and Trump surprised Russia
– We believed in Trump's unconventional behavior and his desire to preserve the image of the conciliator. We expected that he could decide on temporary solutions that would allow Iran to keep his face without a complete ban on enriching uranium. And that he will try to prevent Israeli attack – says a retired high -ranking Kremlin official.
The former Russian diplomat claims that “Israel successively eliminated hostile forces in neighboring countries, then the regime in Damascus fell, and they [Izrael] They took the Golan Hills. “It was clear that Iran would be next,” he adds.
According to the government official, the Kremlin believes that Iran is in a relatively stable situation, taking into account the clear readiness of Trump to compromise and Tehran's flexibility in recent negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program. [Iran był] Ready to talk not about suspension, but about limiting the enrichment of uranium, says the official.
Analysts from the Russian Discussion Club of Wałdajski, a close to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, identified potential threats. It is, for example, about the withdrawal of Iran from the system about the non -structure of nuclear weapons, and then imposing subsequent sanctions.
However, according to The Moscow Times, a direct Israeli military attack, and even more so the change in the regime in Iran, was considered very unlikely by the Kremlin.
– This scenario has been rated as very unlikely – says a high -ranking member of the Wałdajski Club.
Instead, the events went in the most dramatic, surprising and harmful way for both Tehran and Moscow.
– Our forecasts have not been clearly done. Although the situation may still be stabilized – adds a retired Kremlin official.
Although Russia would like to support its threatened ally, there is not enough funds to act independently – they say two sources similar to the Kremlin Foreign Policy Team and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
– We made significant diplomatic efforts to get Israel and Iran to return to negotiations – believes the Russian diplomat. “But they were all unsuccessful,” he says.
Subdued reaction
Within a week of Izrael's commencement of military surgery against Iran Moscow did not call for urgent negotiations.
Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement criticizing the offensive, it did not signal that Russia would take further action.
The most meaningful was the silence of President Vladimir Putinreflecting his restrained reaction during a sudden overthrow in December 2024 of the joint ally Iran and Russia-Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Just two months ago, Moscow and Tehran signed strategic partnership agreements. Iran also transmits drones to Russia so that the Kremlin can effectively wage a war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, after Israel's attack, Putin refrained from comments for several days.
President Iran Masud Pezeszkijan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, January 17, 2025.
This silence occurred despite the extension of economic cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. It is about projects such as the North-South Transport Corridor and the construction of a nuclear power plant in Buszehr by Russia, as well as subsequent projects in preparation.
– If Russia had real tools to influence the situation, it would take definite actionsas in 2015, when the Russian Air Force helped to reverse the fate of the war in Syria and save the Assad regime – notes one of the informers.
However, after three and a half years of war in Ukraine and the weakening of the position in the Middle East, the Kremlin has less tools to achieve its goals in the region.
Even a recent strategic partnership agreement with Tehran does not contain any provisions regarding military assistance in the event of an attack on either party.
Only Trump can affect Netanyahu
“There is no reason to expect a demonstration of Moscow's strength to support Iran,” says Borys Bondalew, a former diplomat of the Russian mission at the UN in Geneva.
– adds Bondalem.
Russia also does not have sufficient diplomatic influences to act unilaterally. When the Kremlin tried to offer himself as a mediator between Washington and Israel, Trump publicly rejected Putin's proposal, telling him to first focus on the end of the war in Ukraine.
– Moscow also has little influence on Israel – emphasizes the retired high -ranking Kremlin official. Once close to relations deteriorated as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Zone after Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023.
– Relations have not been broken, but Israel perceives our position as hostile. Netanyahu no longer listens to our president. Now only Trump can affect him – explains the former official.
“Ukraine will suffer the most with Iran”
Despite the passive reaction, the Kremlin is still trying to influence the result of the conflict. For Moscow, it is a priority to ensure, so that the United States does not get involved directly.
At the same time, Moscow is cautious so as not to be discouraged by Trump, hoping that he will continue to turn a blind eye to Russia's war in Ukraine.
According to one of the government officials, Russia hopes to achieve this goal by mobilizing the support of the main players from the global south, such as China, Brazil and India, to call for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear issue.
– says the official in an interview with “The Moscow Times”.
However, as another diplomat admits, Russia is struggling with a serious problem of credibility.
– It will be difficult for us to lead this kind of coalition when we are involved in the war – he believes. – Every partner can rightly ask: you are in favor of room and not using violence, so why can't you terminate your own conflict in Ukraine? – he adds.
Some in Moscow, however, believe that the crisis can still serve the interests of Russia, especially in Ukraine.
– convinces Ruslan Puchow, director of the Moscow Strategy and Technology Analysis Center.
– However, if Moscow does not take specific steps to defend his ally, her image as world power will suffer in the Middle East and all over the world – says Nikolai Kożanow, an expert from the Center for Studies on the Persian Gulf of the University of Qatar.
