publication
2025-06-18 08:45
The peak of oil demand will be achieved in 2029, and what next? The International Energy Agency forecasts that China's share in the increase in demand for oil will decrease over the next five years. Currently, the surplus of supply over demand according to IEA suggests the stability of the oil market, despite the new phase of war between Iran and Israel.
In the latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that the peak of world demand for crude oil will take place in 2029. Until the end of the decade, it will amount to 105.5 million barrels a day. Over the next five years, there will be structural changes on the market: an increase in demand in China will slow down, and in the USA it will slow down supply. In a short period, the agency does not expect major changes: the current level of production fully covers the needs of the market. However, there is still a field for some correction of the forecast for the current year – it may affect the development of the conflict in the Middle East.
The peak of oil demand will be achieved in 2029 and will amount to 105.5 million barrels per day (BPD), in accordance with the report IEA “Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030”. The respect for the increase in demand has been slightly increased in the latest report – by 100,000. bpd. The peak forecast until the end of the decade is translated by a slowdown in global economic growth (including in connection with commercial voltages), as well as faster than expected oil substitution in the sector of the transport and generation of electricity. It should be noted that the agency's estimates traditionally deviate from the expects of OPEC, which does not expect to achieve peak demand before 2050.
By maintaining a forecast for most countries, IEA corrected it for China – a country that contributes the greatest contribution to the increase in demand for oil, will reach the peak of consumption in 2027, and not in 2028, as previously assumed. The change of respect results from the forecast decrease in domestic demand, as well as the increase in sales of electric vehicles. It should be noted that, according to the estimates of the analytical company EV Volumes, the volume of the global electric vehicle market has almost been tripled since 2021 – two -thirds of them come from China. The number of electric cars registered in the country has increased by 250% over the past three years.
IEA estimates that China's share in the increase in demand for oil will decrease over the next five years. This will be partly compensated by the increase in consumption in India and other developing countries.
Another trend that IEA provides for in its latest report is the slowdown in the growth of supply in the United States by 2030. However, even with the expected reduction of investments in oil production, the country will remain the largest source of supply of supply among countries outside OPEC. Canada, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina will also make a significant contribution to the increase in supply.
The surplus of supply over demand allows you to predict the stability of the oil market, despite the new phase of war between Iran and Israel. However, the agency also sees the growing risk resulting from the escalation of the conflict, one of which is the threat of blocking the Strait of the Ormuz, which has already increased the costs of insurance and freight. According to the agency's latest estimates, about 25% of all global oil supplies flow through the strait.
In recent days, oil prices on the Fuel Stock Exchange in New York are unstable as the conflict between Israel and Iran and the growing fears are deepened that there may be also involvement in the Middle East, also the United States – the brokers inform.
