The second conclusion is that the Ukrainians were able to reach the base 4-5 thousand distant. km from Ukraine. It's unbelievable. What's more, everything was kept secret for 18 months. This is a real problem for Russia, because now he understands that not a single square kilometer of its territory is protected. Ukraine has the opportunity to reach every part of Russia. It also shows that her intelligence capabilities are much greater than some expected. Perhaps now there will be fewer concerns about what will happen if the US stops providing intelligence.
The third conclusion is an example of how to “kill an archer” by destroying bombers that launch maneuvering missiles to Ukrainian cities and kill civilians. Ukraine limited Russia's capabilities in this area. It is better to destroy the so -called archer than to try to capture any arrow.
One more question about this operation. We now hear a lot of threats from Russia that they will respond hard to Ukrainian special operations. Do you think they are able to do something new that they haven't done before? It seems that we have seen and experienced everything, but is anything else possible?
First of all, we must forget about the narrative that Russia will “answer”. I don't even use the word “retaliation” because it is obvious that they have been attacking Ukrainian civilians for years. What else can they do besides what they have already done? They can increase the number of attacks at night, as they did in recent days. But I don't think they have something basically new. I would not exclude anything completely, but it seems unlikely.
As for the intensity of the attacks you mentioned, the last weeks were very difficult for Ukraine – Russia has attacked various cities every day using a huge number of funds. How long can Russia keep this pace? Can they afford to use so many drones every day? And how do you assess their preparation for the potential offensive in the summer?
I think Russia can keep this pace for some time because it does not care about losses. Their economy is completely focused on war. And as long as China and India will buy oil and gas from them, Russia will have money to keep it. They can still buy Shahids from Iran, ammunition from North Korea and so on. This means that if there are no serious external changes, then next year the war will look more or less the same as today.
Of course, if the West – the USA, Europe or Canada – will do something radically different, the situation will change. However, I don't see it so far. And I fully agree with the Ukrainian government: we have to keep fighting. We should not accept a bad contract – Russia will not stick to it anyway.
But can there be something that will force Putin to start real negotiations? I'm not talking about those that are going on now, but about real ones.
If there is no economic pressure, then not. Trump's administration has completely disappointed. The question is, can Europe unite to put economic pressure on Russia? Stop the export of oil and gas through the Baltic and Black Seas? Use frozen Russian assets? This is – in my opinion – the only realistic scenario to make Russia to sit at a real negotiating table.
You say they can do it. Will they do that?
We don't know. I am a bit based on the fact that Chancellor Merz clearly emphasizes support for Ukraine. I think that European leaders are beginning to understand that the United States will not be particularly helpful. We must be realists.
Let's not forget that Congress still supports Ukraine. So I would say that there is still a chance. There may be new sanctions or other actions against Russia, but I don't think they come from the US president.
Do European leaders realize that their safety depends on Ukraine? And that Putin will not stop?
Of course. I think everyone understands this, but some of them may hope that this is not the case. When I listen to secretary general Marek Rutte, chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, President of France Emmanuel Macron, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, President of Finland Alexander Stubba, I think that all these leaders understand Russia's intentions well. I am full of optimism that they will act more strongly.
