EXCLUSIVE. The last big survey before the second round of the presidential elections on Sunday, May 18th. Very small advance for one of the candidates, in the margin of error. The suspense continues

If three days ago George Simion and Nicușor Dan were on a draw, now there is a difference between the two, the data of an atlasintello survey made for Hotnews. Atlasintel correctly anticipated the result of the local elections in Bucharest last year, when Nicușor Dan won a new term of mayor, but in the last survey before the first round of the Atlasintel presidential, the gold leader at 30.2%, although he would win at a big difference, with almost 41%.

The independent Nicușor Dan has a slight advance in front of George Simion, shows the data of an opinion poll conducted by the Atlasintel Institute for Hotnews on May 13-15.

• The Atlasintel survey was conducted on a sample of 5,628 respondents, by the random digital recruitment method (Atlas RDR). The survey has a margin of error ± 1 percentage points, has a level of 95% and includes the vote in the diaspora.

According to the research, Nicușor Dan is credited with 48.7% of the total of those who responded to the questionnaire, while the gold candidate, George Simion, is at 47.8%. Therefore, the difference between the two is 0.9%. At the same time, 1.8% would opt for a null vote, and 1.7% say I don't know.

Atlasintel also presents a graph with the evolution of the voting intention on May 12, when the two candidates were on a draw: 48.2%. Nicușor Dan grew up slightly, while George Simion dropped a little.

Vote on historical regions and diaspora

George Simion takes several votes in Moldova (56.9%), while Nicușor Dan takes several votes in Transylvania (55.2%), Bucharest-Ilfov (48.6% compared to 43.9%-Simion), Muntenia (49% vs. 48%), Diaspora (52.3% compared to 47.5%).

In the first round of the presidential elections, George Simion obtained almost 61%in the diaspora, and Nicușor Dan – 25.61%, the rest of the votes going to the other candidates.

How the polls performed against the official result at the first round. The closest: 35% compared to 41%

A comparative analysis carried out by the Atlasintel polling house presented the average error of the estimates presented by the last survey published by each polling house before the Sunday elections, May 4. The analysis takes into account the polls preceding voting, not the exit-pool studies on the day of the election.

Thus, for Simion the smallest error had the verifield survey from the end of March conducted at the command of Nicușor Dan-then Simion was rated with 35% chances, compared to 41% the final result.

The biggest error was at the last course survey, where Simion was listed at 26%, a 15 percentage error.

At the same time, the Atlasintel survey published three days before the elections quoted George Simion at 31% compared to 41%, the final result.

A possible explanation for the results of George Simion's tour 1 that were over the percentages of the polls

The race for the second place was provided correctly by polls. George Simion was also indicated as a winner, but the gold leader took more than any prediction.

“Against the background of the disputes between the other candidates, the perception that Simion will win the first tour and as a result of the accusations launched following the photograph scandal, part of the PSD electorate tending to support Crin Antonescu migrated to George Simion,” wrote on X, the head of Atlasintel, Andrei Roman.

According to him, the “support wave for Simion increased on the day of the election in a way similar to what I saw in Călin Georgescu”.