Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analyzed recent statements made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine as “historical lands” of Russia. Putin also claimed that “new genetic studies” identify Russians and Ukrainians as one people.
According to ISW, Putin’s reference to “historical Russia” on October 22 is likely linked to the concept of “Novorossiya,” an ambiguous and fictitious region in southern and eastern Ukraine that the Kremlin asserts is an “integral” part of Russia. This region includes not only Crimea and four regions illegally annexed by Russia—Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson—but also Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa.
The report states that Putin’s references to Russia’s “historical claims” demand Ukraine relinquish control over 20.5% of Donetsk Oblast, 24.5% of Zaporizhia, including the city of Zaporizhia with a pre-war population exceeding 700,000, and 30% of Kherson Oblast, including the city of Kherson with a pre-war population of nearly 300,000.
ISW suggests that Putin’s statements clearly indicate that Russian demands extend well beyond the Donetsk region and could encompass all of Ukraine. Furthermore, Putin reiterated his commitment to fulfilling all of Russia’s military objectives, which includes the demand for Ukraine’s full capitulation.
Context
- The aggressor nation, Russia, initiated its war against Ukraine in 2014 by occupying Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south.
- Currently, the majority of the territories in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, parts of Zaporizhia, Kherson (left bank), and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, as well as Crimea, remain under Russian occupation. Additionally, certain border areas of Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts and the Kinburn Peninsula in Mykolaiv Oblast are affected, although Ukrainian forces raised the country’s flag there on June 25.
- According to Ukrainian media reports, the United States is demanding that Ukraine withdraw its troops from Donbas without offering anything in return. Earlier in October, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia would continue to fight “for every inch” of Donbas territory.
- The Atlantic Council reported on September 29 that Putin aims not just to seize Ukrainian territories but to obliterate Ukrainian statehood and revive the Russian Empire. He sees only two possible outcomes for Ukraine: total victory or endless war.
