Russia is unlikely to pause its missile strikes as it consistently meets its production targets, according to Kyrylo Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR). He reported that the production levels for key missile types are currently operating at 110-120% capacity each month. The annual production goals for Zircon and upgraded Onyx missiles were achieved within just seven months.
In August, Moscow plans to manufacture 11,000 strike drones of various types, with a shift in production focusing on turbojet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones. Furthermore, there has been an increase in ballistic missile production, partly due to the suspension of Kinzhal and X-32 missile production since April, allowing resources and components to be reallocated to other missile types.
Moscow is also developing an analogue to Starlink called Rassvet, which is being launched faster than initially planned, although it currently operates intermittently as satellites pass over Ukrainian territory. The Russian military is concentrating its strikes on Ukraine’s defense industry, logistics, and energy infrastructure, which are critical for logistics and port operations. Additionally, there are efforts to target civilian infrastructure to instill panic and destabilize the situation in the country.
In July, Russia launched a total of 153 cruise missiles and 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles. While they may reduce the number of missiles targeting a single objective in the future, a pause in missile strikes is highly unlikely and will depend on their manufacturing capabilities.
