Russian President Vladimir Putin is grappling with significant challenges as Ukraine continues to achieve successes on the battlefield. Reports indicate that these developments, including Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory, have raised concerns for the Kremlin, forcing it to navigate the delicate balance between continuing the war and maintaining internal stability.
According to Newsweek, attacks on oil refineries, energy infrastructure, and logistical facilities have resulted in fuel shortages, reduced oil product exports, and rising prices. Production of gasoline this summer is approximately a third lower than last year, leading to fuel deficits in many regions. The Central Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1% down to 0%, simultaneously increasing the inflation outlook to a range of 6-7%. Additional burdens stem from rising VAT and stricter tax policies.
In this context, the only potential influence on the situation appears to be mobilization within Russia. Consequently, Putin is faced with a challenging decision: to announce a new wave of mobilization for the occupying army or continue to obscure the true consequences of the war from the public.
The article suggests that mass mobilization could mitigate Russian losses on the frontlines. However, the government is hesitant to take this step ahead of elections due to the risk of widespread discontent among the populace. Polls indicate that an increasing number of Russians hold negative views regarding the state of the economy and their living standards.
Context
- On July 27, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned in an interview with Sky News that Ukrainian intelligence had obtained information indicating that Putin was preparing for mobilization and intended to carry it out in the fall. Zelenskyy noted that Putin aims to recruit 300,000 to 500,000 new soldiers.
- The outlet “GORDON” discussed whether this could serve as a sufficient trigger for Russian society to take to the streets in protest.
