“I wish I was wrong.” An expert on the fate of a key Ukrainian fortress. “It's hell out there”
Civilians hiding in the ruins of residential buildings have no choice but to flee the city on their own – for rescuers, approaching its borders is extremely dangerous.
A map prepared by the DeepState analytical center shows that Russian forces have advanced towards the southwestern and eastern edges of the city.
Some analysts no longer give Konstantinówka a chance to hold off the Russians for much longer. Others say that the fighting for the city will continue, but breaking the Russian pressure and completely pushing Russian troops away from the city seems rather unlikely.
“I would like to be wrong, but it seems that Ukraine will lose Konstantynówka in June-July,” wrote Ukrainian military expert Kostyantyn Mashovets on Facebook. He did not provide more details, but announced that he would present a broader analysis soon.
“There is hell in Konstantynówka. After the situation began to deteriorate further in mid-May, measures to improve the situation began at the end of the month. It is still far too early to talk about the loss of the city or about counterattacks that would drive the enemy from there. But actions are being taken to improve the situation in the future,” wrote military blogger Bohdan Myroshnykov on Telegram.
PAP/Alena Solomonova / PAP
Konstantynówka, Ukraine. February 22, 2025
He also pointed out that completely cutting off Russian assault groups entering the city would not be easy, because it is surrounded on all sides by suburbs, which allow the Russians to concentrate their forces near Konstantynówka.
Although Mashowiec believes that the fate of the city may be decided in the next two months, Myroshnykov predicts that the fighting will last “for a long time.” – However, the end is rather certain – we have no way to radically change the course of combat operations in this part of the front and push the enemy away from the city – he said.
A city of strategic importance
Why is Konstantynówka so important? It is a former important railway junction in the Donetsk Oblast one of the cities forming the strategic defense belt of the northern part of the regionwhich the Russians are trying to capture. This is the agglomeration of the cities of Konstantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk, where over half a million people lived before the war.
Today, these cities are subject to bombing and drone attacks, and hundreds of thousands of people have already fled the region due to the war.
However, the situation on the battlefield does not indicate that the Russians are making any significant progress. Even though they intensified their shelling – According to the general staff of the Ukrainian army, in May there were as many as 7,000. clashes — so far they have not managed to make a major operational breakthrough deep into Ukrainian territory.
On the contrary, according to some Ukrainian analysts, the beginning of the Russian spring offensive “has failed”, and the Russians are entering the summer with symptoms of a “logistical heart attack”. The Ukrainian army managed to fire on an important land route connecting Russian territory with the annexed Crimea.
“It can be said that May was the worst month since 2023 for the Russian occupiers.” — Ukrinform news agency quoted military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko.
Big losses, small territorial gains
— According to various estimates, Russian troops captured approximately 88 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May. At the same time, Ukrainian defense forces carried out a series of counterattacks and regained control over approximately 68 square kilometers. The final territorial balance in favor of the enemy is approximately 20 square kilometers. – he said.
According to experts from the DeepState analytical center, the Russians managed to occupy only 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May.
Not a frontal attack, but isolation
Kowalenko also pointed out that Russian sabotage groups operate west and east of Konstantynówka.
— If the enemy manages to fortify on the outskirts of the city and block the viaduct, he will be able to cut off a large industrial zone. This may be a serious problem for us, he said.
According to him The Russians are trying to avoid long-term fighting in large industrial zonesbecause they require huge resources, time and involve large losses. – Therefore, their main goal will most likely not be a frontal attack on the industrial part of Konstantynówka, but to isolate it – added the analyst.
