Israel before the elections. Binyamin Netanyahu is fighting for political survival

Ashley Davis09/05/2026

0 38 3 minutes read

For the first time in many years, the anti-Netanyahu camp has a real chance to defeat Israel's long-time prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.

His personal popularity suffered after the events of October 7, 2023 and the war in the Gaza Strip. He has so far resisted public calls to account for the mistakes that allowed Hamas to launch a surprise attack on Israel nearly three years ago. Reservists' fatigue with years of conflict deepens tensions between secular and religious Israelis, which always play a role in the country's elections. The public is frustrated that the war with Iran has not produced the results that Netanyahu promised.

The current situation does not look good for Netanyahu – the latest polls show that his camp is losing support while his opponents are gaining. Although his Likud party currently has no clear path to forming a coalition, his rivals are also uncertain ahead of the elections, which must be held no later than the end of October.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has become his biggest rival and has joined forces with opposition leader Yair Lapid to exploit dissatisfaction with Israel's longest-serving prime minister. Some polls indicate that the duo has a better chance of forming a majority government than Netanyahu.

Naftali Bennett at an election rallyPAP

And yet no one is writing off Netanyahu, who is once again fighting for political survival. The opposition bloc led by Bennett will probably have to reach for the support of Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel to gain a majority. This has been done in the past, but in this election, Bennett said he would not do it. If another impasse occurs, as in 2019-2021, Netanyahu will remain a technical prime minister.

Netanyahu's opponents' camp has long had trouble finding a candidate for prime minister and breaking down the mathematical advantage that brought Netanyahu to the top. Between 2019 and 2022, during five elections, a government without Netanyahu was formed only once — led by Bennett and Lapid — and it lasted just one year. Netanyahu has been written off many times before, but each time he has managed to pull off another astonishing political comeback.

This time, however, the obstacles are different — and perhaps even more difficult to overcome. The elections were often a kind of referendum on the tough security policy of Netanyahu, who presented himself as the only guarantor of Israel's security and its position in the international arena. However, after October 7, issues of security competence, Netanyahu's support for ultra-Orthodox Jews not to serve in the military, and his weakening of state institutions are increasingly replacing traditional ideological divisions.

The merger of Bennett and Lapid is intended to solve the chronic problem of fragmentation of the anti-Netanyahu camp. New parties are also emerging on the scene, which may attract right-wing voters who value tough security policy but are tired of Netanyahu and expect greater public participation in the military, especially as long-term conflict becomes an everyday occurrence.

— Netanyahu has demonstrated a political resilience that few can match. You can love him or hate him, but he is a cat with nine lives, says Jonathan Panikoff, a former US intelligence officer, currently director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative think-tank at the Atlantic Council. — Given the wars in Gaza and Iran and the fatigue of the Israeli public, Netanyahu has a path to survival, but it is narrower than ever before.

The question today is not whether Netanyahu will win in October, but whether anyone else will be able to do so. Much can still change — including the election date — but the most likely scenario is another stalemate. As long as Netanyahu stops his partners from defeating him, he does not need to achieve a spectacular victory to remain in power.

Ashley Davis09/05/2026

0 38 3 minutes read