The censure motion, between alliance and sabotage. Political consultant George Rîpa's analysis of AUR's secret plan
“Yes, what do we do?” is probably the question many AUR MPs are asking themselves, but especially George Simion. Initiator, together with the PSD, of the censure motion against the Ilie Bolojan government, AUR has several scenarios at its disposal, including the one in which it would sabotage its own initiative with the aim of bringing into opposition and weakening the party led by Sorin Grindeanu. “Adevărul” tried to decipher, together with the political consultant George Rîpă, the games made during these hours, but also the main objectives of George Simion's formation.
George Simion. PHOTO: Inquam Photos
The leader of AUR declared, on Monday, convinced that the motion of censure will be adopted, a plausible scenario if we take into account that the two parties managed to collect 254 signatures for the dismissal of the government led by Ilie Bolojan.
“I rely on political arithmetic, on democracy. The PSD, following the vote on December 1, 2024, is the first party in the preferences of the Romanians who went to vote then. We are the number two party. And that gives us a 99% chance through parliamentary representation that this motion will pass”said George Simion at Europa FM.
However, the scenario in which AUR or several parliamentarians of this party would change their mind and no longer vote for the motion, although unlikely at this point, cannot be excluded. Petrișor Peiu, number 2 in the party hierarchy, announced that AUR senators and deputies will not be obliged to vote in person, which means that they will be able to keep their vote secret. Another variant discussed is the one in which George Simion would impose on the PSD the support of Călin Georgescu for the position of prime minister, a condition impossible for the social democrats to accept.
In George Rîpa's opinion, the censure motion represents a major test for AUR, and George Simion cannot afford to miss it. However, if the vote will be secret, the analyst believes, there is a possibility that several of the elected AUR will violate the official party line and vote against the motion.
“Simion and those around him cannot afford not to vote on the motion, the removal of Bolojan is the first major test the party has given since he has been in Parliament. On the other hand, if the vote will be secret, I would not be surprised if a significant number of AUR MPs would vote against the motion, for various reasons. One reason would be that they sympathize with Bolojan, another would be that they fear that the process could lead to early elections and thus lose their seats in the Parliament Some understand very well that they can no longer get an eligible seat, others have “invested” in getting this seat. So why would they send themselves home? It is impossible to psychologically analyze each AUR parliamentarian, but I am certain that not all of them would vote if the vote were to be secret”, pointed out George Rîpa.
“AUR harnessed to a PSD project”
A major problem for AUR is public perception, even if it does not have the most demanding electorate behind it. An alliance de facto with the PSD could partially cancel the rhetoric through which the AUR established itself on the Romanian political scene.
“AUR is taking a risk at the moment. It has harnessed itself to a PSD project and many may understand that the party has subordinated itself to the political plans of the Grindeanu-Olguța grouping. In both cases, whether the motion passes or not, AUR will be in a complicated situation. If it does not pass, then it has missed the first major battle in Parliament and they are seen as losers. If the motion passes, the AUR electorate will have the claim that the party will reach in the government, or PSD ruled this out. Or, if Bolojan leaves and we have a government without AUR, Simion and his team will be accused of being “useful idiots” of PSD. However, for AUR it would be a disaster to consolidate the image of a party at the mercy of PSD, because that would mean that all that speech with the “anti-system” party was just marketing”, explains the analyst.
What is AUR after?
Beyond the no-confidence motion, the party's long-term stakes remain up for debate. Although AUR sits well in the electorate's preferences, triggering the anticipations is a scenario that few consider viable. In this landscape, George Rîpa draws attention to the true intentions of those who dictate the party's strategy.
“AUR certainly wants early elections. It is the only parliamentary party that would get a much better score than in 2024. Opinion polls show that PSD would get fewer seats in Parliament, PNL more, USR about the same. At the same time, AUR knows that it is almost impossible to have early parliamentary elections, so it is counting on increasing its influence and political profile. A short-term gain can also be obtaining a legitimation, by associating with PSD in an effort However, it is difficult to say exactly what the AUR wants, as long as we do not have a clear picture of the forces that coordinate the party, of those who decide the strategy of the party. So far, if we look at their votes in Parliament, if we look at the messages that the leaders give, we can conclude that the AUR wants to stop the reforms, to preserve the current system that wastes Romanians' money. it seems that AUR wants what PSD also wants, the defense of the mafia state built in the early 90s by Ion Iliescu and those around him”, concluded George Rîpa.
