In Q1 2026, 12.9 thousand were sold on the seven largest markets in Poland. apartments, and 10.3 thousand were put on sale. premises. Market disruptions may initially increase the attractiveness of available ready-made premises. In turn, the prices of newly introduced ones will increase and their number will begin to decrease – says Aleksandra Gawrońska from JLL.
“Looking at the sales results, but also at the number of apartments put on sale in the first quarter, it is worth remembering that these results show the results of various decisions made earlier at different dates. In the case of recording sales statistics, based not on reservations but on development contracts, buyers' decisions were mostly made at least a few weeks earlier. To put it simply, we can say that sales statistics in March mostly reflect decisions made in February, sometimes January, and sometimes the first days of March,” said Aleksandra Gawrońska, quoted in the press release. Director, Head of Residential Research, JLL Poland.
“The decision-making pattern regarding the introduction of new investments to the offer is similar to the one in the case of sales. As a rule, the preparation and decision to introduce new investments to the offer takes several months, but the final appearance of the overwhelming number of new offers in March was in most cases the result of decisions made in February and at the beginning of March at the latest. This is important in the case of this quarter because at the beginning of March one could still hope that this next war in the Gulf would last, just like the previous one, a few weeks and would not have a significant impact on the Polish economy or inflation. and the housing market,” she added.
The war continues and it is unclear when and with what consequences it will end. According to the expert, will probably bring not only an increase in fuel costs and prices of a number of raw materials that usually flow to Europe from this region. Transport costs from the region may become permanently higher as the risk of another lockdown will have to be permanently factored into prices.
According to Gawrońska, for the development market this means that the interest rates on loans in an optimistic scenario will remain close to the current ones for a longer period of time, unless they start to increase and will not continue to decrease, as could be expected at the beginning of the year.
“Construction costs will increase, both due to the costs of energy and fuel for the transport and operation of equipment, as well as energy-intensive materials. There will be disruptions in supply chains, and as a result – hopefully temporary – problems with some products. Paradoxically, in the initial period it may be beneficial from the developers' perspective. Customers will quickly understand that ready-made or almost ready-made apartments are a product not threatened by disruptions, a product worth buying now because the price and delivery date are known,” she said.
“The situation with newly launched investments will be less clear. Construction companies will have to start including the risk of price increases in their final costs, just like developers operating in the formula of independent construction management. Let us add that today any forecasts of an increase in these prices have a very fragile and uncertain basis. The prices of newly introduced apartments on the market must therefore increase, and their number will probably start to decrease,” she added.
In the case of Warsaw, this will mean a relatively rapid reduction in the offer and entering a period of supply shortage, in other cities – a faster or slower removal of the supply surplus.
“The closer to equilibrium a given market is, the faster the prices of ready-made premises will begin to increase, as their number begins to decline. When this happens, sales may accelerate even further, because some potential buyers expected further declines in rates and prices, and ordinary buyers will be joined by risk-takers who want to make money on speculation. On the other hand, in the longer term, we can observe great caution in introducing new investments among medium-sized players and variable policies in the largest listed companies, which usually use similar crises to increase their share in a shrinking market,” he believes. expert.
In the first quarter of 2026, a total of 12.9 thousand were sold in the seven largest markets. apartments (increase by 11.1% QoQ and 35.2% YOY).
“It is worth emphasizing that the increase took place despite the long holiday break in January and February, and additionally, in the last weeks of March, the buyer's mood was influenced by the war in the Persian Gulf. The highest quarter-on-quarter sales increase was recorded in Katowice (+51%), which, however, only translates into approximately 170 more transactions. In Warsaw and Łódź, sales increased by 16.7% and 17.5% QoQ, respectively, and another increase in demand was noticeable also in Kraków and Poznań. Sales outweighed the new supply in six out of seven metropolises – the exception is Kraków, where 13% more apartments were put on the market than in the previous quarter,” Gawrońska said.
A total of 10.3 thousand were put on sale. new apartments, i.e. by 27 percent less than in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The stabilization of supply is visible mainly in Wrocław and Poznań, while in other cities (except Krakow) there was a significant slowdown in this activity, which – as the expert assessed – is typical for the beginning of the year.
As a result, the offer of apartments for sale decreased slightly in most cities (or remained unchanged). At the end of March, it amounted to approx. 69,000 in the seven largest markets. apartments – which is a level close to historical records. This offer also includes reserved but unsold premises, of which there were a total of approx. 6.4 thousand at the end of the first quarter.
According to JLL, in the first quarter the average price of apartments on offer at the end of March was influenced by new, often more expensive investments – especially in Warsaw, where it increased by 6.2%. kdk to PLN 19,900/sq m. A similar increase was recorded in Poznań (+2.4% kdk to PLN 14,100/sq m), while in other cities the change did not exceed 0.6%. Annual increases in the average offer price exceeding inflation are visible only in Warsaw and Poznań, while a significant decline occurred in Wrocław.
“Cities are also becoming more and more differentiated in terms of the supply and demand relationship. Warsaw has entered the phase of demand predominance and a slight shortage of apartments. The Tricity remains a market close to equilibrium, and Wrocław is dynamically approaching this level. However, in Kraków and Poznań, supply still exceeds demand, although this difference is clearly decreasing. The longest theoretical time of sale of the offer is recorded in Łódź (over 2 years) and Katowice (over 3 years). years),” added the expert. (PAP Business)
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