The Warsaw Stock Exchange is in red again. “It has lost the strength it had (…). We prefer to invest in America”
Friday's session on the Warsaw trading floor passed according to a well-known scenario from recent days. Small but consistent declines. What is noticeable is the growing pressure on the banking sector just before the start of the earnings season. While the technological Nasdaq in the US is breaking historical records, the domestic stock exchange is losing its strength in the first quarter of the year, the expert notes.
Although optimistic news regarding potential peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran came from overseas, Polish blue chips failed to maintain the momentum and plunged for the fifth time in a row, while the Warsaw Stock Exchange is struggling with the shortness of breath in the banking sector and weakening copper prices, which weigh on KGHM. The fading upward momentum in crude oil also stopped Orlen's stock from breaking further records. There are more and more doubts about the chance of breaking the peak on WIG20, which was still about 8% short of it in mid-April. Meanwhile, currently it is about 11 percent.
At the close of Friday's session in Warsaw, WIG20 fell by 0.61%, reaching 3,556.91 points, and the broad WIG index dropped by 0.58%. up to 130,656.09 points In turn, mWIG40 went down by 0.46%. (8,991.98 points), while sWIG80 lost 0.44%, ending the day at 31,083.68 points. Market turnover amounted to PLN 1.8 billion, of which PLN 1.42 billion concerned WIG20 companies.
Europe is in retreat, American technology is breaking records
The mood on the Vistula River corresponded with the mood on the main trading floors of the Old Continent, although the scale of declines in Europe varied. London's FTSE 100 fell by 0.6% and Paris's CAC 40 fell by 0.7%. The Frankfurt DAX retained its relative strength, losing a symbolic 0.1%.
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The mood was better on Wall Street. The start of the session in the US brought a wave of optimism, fueled by reports of a diplomatic offensive. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to appear in Islamabad, which the market interprets as an opportunity for a second round of peace talks with the US. The Nasdaq set a new high, gaining over 1%. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.4%.
Analyst: “Europe has not yet discounted the effects of the conflict”
According to experts, current valuation levels on European markets, including Poland, may be too optimistic in the face of geopolitical tensions.
“In recent days, the Warsaw Stock Exchange has lost the strength it had in the first three months of the year. Banks are starting to give in to the pressure, which is completely understandable. At this point, this is the main factor of the decline,” Kamil Cisowski, manager at Opoka TFI, commented for PAP Biznes.
“Of course, there are also companies in the black, but in general we are skeptical. We think that something is wrong with the current level of valuations, because from our perspective they are quite high,” he added.
He assessed that the crisis related to the conflict had not been fully discounted. “This means that we will be looking for rather short positions on the Polish market, just like on other European markets. They seem to be priced too high at the moment,” he said.
“From our perspective, if we want to invest anywhere, Europe and Poland are not the right directions. If we have a choice, we prefer to invest in America,” he added.
The banking sector is in retreat, copper is dragging KGHM down
The main burden for the WIG20 index was the financial sector. WIG Banki fell by 1%, continuing its downward streak after reaching historic highs in mid-April. Among the decliners was Alior Bank, whose price fell by 2.96%. Next week, banks will start reporting results for the first quarter, in which the first symptoms of deterioration in interest margins are expected. On Thursday, the market was reeling from the judgment of the European Court of Justice, which ruled that a bank cannot charge interest on amounts intended to cover the costs of a consumer loan.
The raw materials giant from Lubin also performed poorly. KGHM shares fell by 1.62%. to the level of PLN 318.10. The pressure on the price of the “copper juggernaut” is the result of declines in the red metal on the London Stock Exchange LME and declines in silver prices, which rebounded only at the end of the session, which allowed for a slight reduction of over 2%. KGHM's discount seen during the session.
PGE stood out among the blue chips, growing by 2.43%. Dino shareholders also had reasons to be satisfied, as their shares increased by 0.66%. However, LPP lost heavily, ending the day with a decline of 2.84%. In total, 15 rates recorded declines in WIG20, and 5 were below the mark.
Drones in Boryszew and weaker results of Rainbow Tours
Neuca excelled in the mWIG40 index with an increase of 4.93%. Investors' attention was drawn to the estimated results of Grupa Azoty, whose shares dropped by 2.02%. after providing information about a symbolic EBITDA margin (0.4%) for the fourth quarter of 2025.
In the small-cap segment (sWIG80), Boryszew stood out, with its price increasing by up to 3%. Investors reacted positively to the management's ambitious plans for drone production in 2026, despite the lack of a dividend payment recommendation. Ultimately, however, Boryszew's exchange rate gained only 1.14%.
Medinice was at the opposite extreme, correcting the recent strong growth with a decline of 5.32%. Rainbow Tours had a changeable day. In the morning, the travel agency's shares fell by 7%. after the publication of financial results lower than the PAP Biznes consensus, however, in the afternoon, demand managed to push the price higher, limiting the loss to 1.93%.
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