One trend in particular is causing increasing concern among experts: the number of children under 14 suspected of committing crimes continues to rise. In 2024, this increase was 11.3%. In 2025, violent crime in this age group increased by 3.3%.
“Die Welt”: The number of children suspected of violent crimes has more than doubled since 2021. Are we dealing with a persistent trend here?
Alexander Baur: 2021 was certainly an exceptional year in terms of crime statistics, which does not lend itself to comparison. During the coronavirus pandemic, many visible crimes in public spaces were impossible to commit. It would be better to refer to the years before the pandemic. Then the situation becomes somewhat relativized.
The increase in the number of children suspected of committing crimes should be closely monitored, especially the so-called violent crimes. But I'm not deeply concerned. Germany is still a very safe country. We must also always take into account what exactly lies behind the police crime statistics numbers and what value they have.
What would it be?
One explanation for the increase in these numbers is, for example, a change in societal attitudes towards violence: in the past, schoolyard fights were probably more likely to be resolved informally or, at best, punished by the school principal. Today, people may decide to report the matter to the police more often.
In the era of smartphones, video recordings and photos from the scene of the incident are becoming more and more common. This may also lead to a greater willingness to report crimes.
There are such shocking cases. However, we tend to significantly overestimate their frequency. Sometimes it also has to do with the frequency and nature of media coverage of such events. However, thank God, these cases are still extremely rare. When it comes to youth crime, we are most often talking about minor offenses. However, I do not want to downplay this: given the enormous damage that serious acts cause, we should also look closely at this case.
The Federal Criminal Office lists several possible causes: the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, increasing impulsivity, more and more deviant behavior and social media. What convinces you the most?
Most of these theories have some credibility, but we don't know for sure. For example, the impact of social media on crime is still poorly understood. Late effects on socialization and the catch-up effect following the coronavirus pandemic have long been cited as explanations for rising crime. However, such effects would eventually have to subside.
We also need to recognize that the pressure on our society, and on young people, is constantly increasing. They are growing up in times of multiple crises — pandemics, wars, economic uncertainty. Such burdens also influence the development of crime and its perception.
Among the children suspected of committing crimes, there are also people who are not German citizens. What role does migration play?
Here, too, migration often conceals precarious social conditions. We know that they are a risk factor for crime. In many cases, the reporting behavior of non-German suspects is also likely to be different.
Many hypotheses, but few certain conclusions – do we have a problem with knowledge about child and youth crime?
Yes, you have to admit it. This starts with the state of our crime statistics, which we have not managed to improve for several terms of parliament. We also do not have data on recidivism and the effectiveness of sanctions. In Göttingen we are trying, through several empirical research projects, to prevent this gap from widening too much.
We would also need long-term research that examines how young people's changing living conditions affect their development over time. It costs money. In the agreement, the coalition announced that such research would be carried out. We'll see what comes of it.
Police patrol in Berlin, March 24, 2026.SOEREN STACHE / AFP
The Ministry of Justice is currently preparing new regulations against digital violence, also aimed at better protection of children. Do you think this is heading in the right direction, or is politics only reacting to isolated cases?
Nowadays, politicians are much more sensitive to threats in the digital space. International patterns are also emerging – for example in Australia, where platforms are much more regulated. How this will translate into reality remains to be seen. However, I see that a lot is happening – and in principle this is to be welcomed.
It cannot be forgotten that children in the digital space are primarily victims – for example of cyberbullying or other forms of violence.
However, it is once again striking that the debate is largely driven by isolated incidents in the media. This makes long-term, strategic regulation difficult. Individual cases are rarely a good guide.
Children's numbers are rising. At the same time, in the case of young people, they are decreasing. Does this mean that crime is shifting towards younger age groups?
Yes, we are actually seeing some shift towards younger age groups. The peak of crime seems to be shifting – depending on what data you use to calculate it – towards younger people. However, here too there may be factors distorting the statistics, such as the legalization of marijuana. Drug-related crimes are particularly common among young people and teenagers.
If children at the age of 10 or 12 are already violent, how high is the risk of turning to crime?
The vast majority of youth crime is episodic in nature. This means that there is a transitional phase in the lives of young people in which they do not follow the rules. In the vast majority of cases, a single crime is not a cause for concern. Rather, it is part of normality during adolescence. However, 6 to 8 percent commits crimes repeatedly.
Sometimes, although this is not a very accurate term, we talk about “people destroying the system”. We need to deal with these small groups. In the interest of young people, but also in the interest of society as a whole. However, it must also be said that even in this group, crime often decreases with age. There are turning points in life – a new relationship, learning, new surroundings. This stabilizes the situation.
What can Germany learn from other countries in dealing with child and youth crime?
We don't have to be ashamed. We're doing quite well. It is crucial everywhere that we must recognize risk factors early and then take them seriously. Known factors include difficult family conditions, a problematic and uncertain social environment and the use of violence in upbringing. For people under 14 years of age, youth assistance and family courts are primarily required.
In fact, sometimes I wish the actions in this area were even more decisive and the approach to the problem even more sensitive. We also need well-funded social work and support offers for overburdened parents to help them raise their children. Switzerland is not a bad example in this respect either.
Children can be held criminally liable there from the age of 10. At the same time, there is a complementary, refined system of therapeutic and educational care. Would this be a role model?
Currently, we do not have such possibilities in the field of criminal law. However, another issue seems to me to be more important than criminal liability: how do we want to legally regulate prevention and how do we want to shape it? Ultimately, it's about whether we're willing to act sooner and more consistently — and for what that's worth to us. Because no matter how we regulate these issues legally, we always need funds for appropriate care infrastructure.
Alexander Baur is director of the Department of Criminology, Youth Criminal Law and Penalty Enforcement, as well as head of the Department of Criminal Law and Criminology at the Georg Augustus University in Göttingen.
