Crisis scenarios at the peak of power: how the Bolojan Government can resist and why the abandonment of the prime minister would mean the “death” of the PNL
The political stakes of the moment move to the PSD on Monday, where approximately 5,000 delegates are expected to vote to withdraw political support for Ilie Bolojan. According to “Truth” information, the result is a formality: the prime minister will receive a 3-day ultimatum to resign. If he refuses, the only way to survive remains the formation of a minority government, a formula that, according to analyst Cristian Hrițuc, can function constitutionally for 45 days. During this interval of fire, the Bolojan executive will be totally dependent on the game of those from the AUR, who will monitor that the landing of the prime minister is not settled as a victory for the social democrats. However, warns Hrițuc, the burden will fall on the PNL's shoulders: if after the 45 days the liberals “let go” of Bolojan under PSD pressure, the party risks political extinction.
Ilie Bolojan is preparing to lead a minority government. PHOTO: Gov.ro
The possible exit of the PSD from the government opens a new chapter of political instability, in which the Executive led by Ilie Bolojan enters a fragile zone.
In an interview with “Adevărul”, political analyst Cristian Hrițuc explains the legal and political mechanisms that can keep a minority government alive, but also the major risks that can bring it down.
Although the Constitution allows the functioning of the Interim Government, theoretically, for more than 45 days, the analyst does not believe that Ilie Bolojan will resort to “lawyer tricks” to stay in power. Petre Lăzăroiu, former CCR judge, declared that it is possible for the Bolojan Government to stay for another two years without going to the Parliament. “Fthe fact that he does not go to the Parliament, has no sanction. Rotate ministers. He appoints an interim and after 45 days he rotates them. It is possible to stay for a year or two”he declared..
In this context, AUR acquires a decisive role, being able to directly influence the fate of the government, but it has no interest in playing the game in which the PSD will appear as the party that obtained a victory by landing Bolojan.
Hrițuc talks about possible scenarios, internal tensions in the parties and image games that can redraw the political scene in the coming weeks.
“This government will last as long as AUR wants, in these 45 days”
The truth: How long can a Bolojan minority government last?
Cristian Hrițuc: The Bolojan government, in the form in which the PSD ministers leave, can last at least 45 days if there is no censure motion to be voted in Parliament. So, the Bolojan government can last as long as the Constitution allows, and here I mean the 45-day term for interim ministers. There are two discussions, one legal and the other political.
We once had the legal discussion in which it roughly sounds like this, the Bolojan government in order to stay in the long term must go and get a vote in parliament, a vote of confidence because the political composition of the Government is changing. Parliament must vote by simple majority for this purpose. We have a decision of the CCR given in 2008 in this regard.
Petre Lăzăroiu, former CCR judge, declared that it is possible for the Bolojan Government to stay for another two years without going to the Parliament. What do you think of this scenario?
So in order to stay in the long term, from a legal point of view, if there is no motion, the Bolojan Government must go and get a vote of confidence in the Parliament. What Mr. Lăzăroiu says is a lawyer's joke.
From a political point of view, I am sure that Bolojan will not allow himself to do what Mr. Lăzăroiu says, that is, to come every 45 days with the ministers and use this trick and so on. One, because it wouldn't go along with the line of image he's projected as an honest guy. Two, because in the end a constitutional conflict can be triggered, a legal battle can be entered into which Mr. Bolojan would lose. So this government will last as long as it wants GOLD in these 45 days.
And the PSD made the biggest mistake, because after the budget, when it made them “king maker”, now it strengthened their position.
AUR, if it submits or votes a censure motion submitted by PSD, will be the one that will be perceived as the party that brought down the Bolojan government. PSD, I think unconsciously did not realize what it was exposing itself to, because at this moment it is strengthening the AUR party.
“AUR has no interest in bringing down the government too soon”
Will AUR be interested in bringing down the Bolojan government?
AUR has no interest in bringing down the government too soon, because it has to show the PSD as a weak party that has withdrawn its ministers, a lying party that has played a game so far in power and in the opposition.
So, AUR has an interest in the PSD staying in a crisis as long as possible. And when the Bolojan government remains in office, in two weeks you will see great turbulence in the PSD, because the people in the party will not understand: “Why did we get out of power and are in the opposition now?“
Can something happen in these 45 days that would cause the departure of the Bolojan Government?
The only thing that causes Bolojan to go home in these 45 days is a censure motion voted by PSD and AUR.
In the rest, after the withdrawal of the PSD ministers, Ilie Bolojan, together with the UDMR and the USR, can ensure the interim positions, to go for 45 days. Naturally, from the point of view of efficiency, a minority government has limited power. He cannot do great things. It depends on any political negotiation.
Bolojan doesn't expect any surprises in the PSD vote: “The dice have been cast. I've disturbed a lot in this mandate”
Can the Bolojan Government do something notable, from a political point of view, in these 45 days?
Mr. Bolojan's interest, politically, from my perspective, is to fall from power while starting a big reform. I mean, he can initiate a reform with a strong impact in society and take responsibility and leave then, so this could be the game in the next period.
The most likely scenario: 45 days with a minority government
Which do you think is the most likely scenario?
The most likely scenario is that the Ilie Bolojan government will continue for 45 days in this phase.
After that what can happen?
Theoretically, there will be many negotiations. If Traian Băsescu was president, Ilie Bolojan would remain in office. But now are different times.
The most likely scenario is that after these 45 days, depending on the political negotiations that may take place, we can have a continuation of the Ilie Bolojan minority government, but I think there are very low chances of this happening, or a reconfiguration and the creation of a new government. Everything will depend here, everything is in the hands of the PNL. How united is the PNL around Ilie Bolojan and how united will the narrow coalition be, so to speak, PNL-USR. I mean there can be many scenarios. It can also be the scenario in which the PSD gets rid of Grindeanu and returns to the coalition.
It may be in the scenario where the PNL gets rid of Bolojan and comes into the coalition.
It may also be the least likely scenario at this time with a minority government supported by a “tightening army” in Parliament. But it's still too early to tell.
In the current situation, do you think that the PSD can back down by leaving the government?
Not. Well, check out the campaign I'm doing now on Facebook. The dice have been cast. I wrote an analysis two months before the budget vote and I said that it would end here.
So we have 45 days of minority government and then it will depend on the negotiations?
Yes, I don't think Bolojan will want to stay longer. Rather he goes with full ministers to Parliament and asks for a vote and we'll see what happens then. Extending the interim period of 45 days would be a trick, and we have seen Bolojan's entire political trajectory and he is not tired of tricks. It's a lawyer's trick, so to speak, which, from my point of view, wouldn't be legal anyway.
“If they give up Bolojan, the PNL disappears”
After the 45 potential interim days, the decision returns to the PNL, you say. What do you think the decision of the PNL will depend on?
It depends on how long it stays together and doesn't start an internal fracture that says, “let's keep the stability, let's not mess with one man.”
What does the PNL lose if they “let go” of Bolojan?
If they let go of Bolojan, their only asset, I would bet that the PNL will not enter the Parliament next time but on the PSD lists. In the last elections, they got 8%, their candidate, Nicolae Ciucă, got 8%. For the PNL, giving up on Ilie Bolojan at this moment means political death. Give up their main asset – Bolojan has twice the party's score – and it would make the PSD game, it would strengthen the PSD, and the PNL would simply disappear if they do this maneuver and give up Bolojan.
Ilie Bolojan describes the economic and administrative situation: “We have a lot of political vuvuzelas” and “rats that eat the state's supplies”
If PNL insists with Bolojan, what could it lose? What could happen?
If they insist with Bolojan, how is Bolojan's image, and how will Bolojan evolve, a right-wing force can be formed around the PNL, which in the next elections will be at least somewhere between 20 and 25%. It could make that right-wing pole they talk about too.
Does that mean he would be out of government?
It is difficult for anyone to say now what is happening, because you look at the political interests of each party. AUE's interest is not to give PSD a victory.
The early elections desired by AUR, an almost impossible scenario
AUR claims that it wants early elections, the party leaders said…
Yes, but this scenario, from a constitutional point of view, is almost impossible. So AUR's interest is not to give PSD a victory so that it can show: “we changed Bolojan, we have a new prime minister.”
PSD's interest is to show that it can replace Bolojan and can stay in government and lead the government. It cannot be done without PNL and USR-e. You can not. So the interests of the parties are totally divergent, and by causing this crisis, you basically put everyone's back against the wall. Everyone has a good decision, a bad decision.
AUR is the only winner in this whole game who can decide when he decides to change Bolojan. This is because AUR, if it submits a motion, PSD will be forced to vote on the motion. And here we can do the following scenario. AUR will not vote for PSD's motion. If PSD decides tomorrow to submit a motion to get rid of Bolojan, AUR has no interest in voting on that motion.
Will the current parliamentarians vote for early elections, in a situation where, in practice, many may lose their mandate?
They won't vote, that's the main problem. Here the Constitution says that after two appointments that did not pass the Parliament, the president may, but is not obliged, to call for early elections. Nicușor Dan knows that if early elections were held tomorrow, AUR would become the main party of the country and it would be even more difficult to keep it out of government.
PSD went into a black hole, threw itself into the abyss at the moment.
