USA and Russia, global duel with threats and strategic offers that cannot be ignored. Which will become reality?
“If you wait quietly on the bank of the river, you will surely see how the body of your enemy will float on the water.”
Lao Tzu – Tao Te Ching
It could happen extremely quickly, perhaps unexpectedly quickly, with effects that will encompass at least part of the world, with the potential to change the balance of power, withdraw (at last, some analysts will say from the closed clubs where the fate of the world is decided) the borders of the spheres of influence.
PHOTO Profimedia
Let's start with the most recent threat – and perhaps with the most dramatic possible consequences – uttered by Trump, our closest strategic ally, addressed to Great Britain, another strategic dough of our country which he informs that he is ready, as retaliation for London's attitude, to break the trade agreement (“European Presperity Deal) concluded with the UK in 2025. The threat, far from being a theoretical one, was formulated in a interview with Sky News, the volcanic and totally unpredictable supreme leader of the White House declaring that the deal was “better than it should have been” and that it “can be changed at any time” because it did not properly answer the call when it was necessary to support the war launched by Israel and the US against Iran. indeed, he uttered an unexpected reply: we are not interested, it is not our war!
Moreover, in a move never foreseen by American diplomacy, British Prime Minister Keir Stamer told Parliament that he did not intend to “give in to pressure”. Rachel Reeves, the finance minister, sharply criticized what she bluntly called the “madness” of the Trump administration in launching into a large-scale military conflict without a clear exit plan, saying she was worried about the dire impact on the world economy and the effects on the rising costs of everyday life. In parentheses, the apocalyptic announcement made in the same vein by those at the IMF should also be recorded in this line…
Are they right? Just estimate the tragic effects of a negative decision by Trump, immediately followed, following the well-known pattern that has brought the world stock markets to despair, by a change in tariffs with the UK now capped at 10% and which would completely disrupt vital industrial areas in the UK (car construction, steel and aluminum production). And, by far, that would not be all because, logically, the dissensions that could follow would seriously affect the credibility of NATO's European operational structures.
In which case the only logical question is how long will the political markets and the more or less visible military and security structures withstand these almost daily changes in the fundamental data that guaranteed the Euro-Atlantic architecture? Who in the Euro-Atlantic space has the time to wait for, on the other side, the decline and irreversible decline of the power of the adversary who has progressively exhausted his vital resources, giving you time to use your own errors against him?
Hard to estimate because Trump now says that the Americans have already ended the war they won, so the problem, from his point of view, is over, in large part due to the exceptional effectiveness of the naval blockade, so to speak.
But the others are not idle either. On the contrary.
Here's the other bid with the potential to change global games.
Visiting Beijing to meet with President Xi, Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister of the Russian Federation, brings an incredibly important message, even fabulous in its implications if, indeed, it turns out that Russia might be ready to produce its application on the ground:
“Without any doubt, Russia can compensate for the lack of resources that has arisen at this moment, both at the level of the People's Republic of China and in the case of all countries willing to cooperate with us in a fair and mutually beneficial way.”
Already, the message is making important waves, especially because, should the most affected countries in the world start queuing up at the Kremlin for individual-national and especially confidential contacts, and why not, India's case should be carefully studied, accepting three major conditions: payment in barter system and in their national currency (preferably the convertible version guaranteed in gold) or in rubles and in any case NOT in US dollars, further contributing to the hope of BRICS to replace American currency.
In this time of major crisis, just about anything can happen. Let's see who has the strength to impose their offer, prove that it is indeed credible and possible to implement in both directions very quickly and then negotiate the future conditions of survival.
But do you really think that our politicians today, even reading about Lao Tse's exhortation in the press, would be interested in this nonsense? I don't think so. Maybe others, the ones who write their agendas.
