Climate change, plantation diseases and insufficient investments reduced the supply of coffee and cocoa, and producers transferred costs to prices, reduced weights and modified recipes, but still increased final prices, which increased in Romania by almost 25% in March 2026 compared to March 2025, INS data show.
Inflation approached double digits (it was 9.9%) and it is possible that in the coming months it will cross the psychological threshold of 10%. For now, the NBR's base scenario is that the year will end with 4% inflation, which is hard to believe.
It is the eighth consecutive month in which the consumer price index has exceeded the 9% mark — an unprecedented episode in the last decade and without equivalent among the member states of the European Union.
Why did coffee become more expensive?
Arabica coffee crops have been affected by drought, frost and extreme weather events in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, reducing global supply.
Arabica futures have risen to multi-decade highs (eg around $4/lb in 2025, +60% year-on-year) and Robusta has also hit all-time highs.
Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on coffee from major producing countries have disrupted trade flows, increased costs and fueled volatility.
Why does he feel so strongly about us?
Romania fully imports cocoa and coffee, so it almost completely transmits the shocks on the international stock exchanges to the prices on the shelf.
The global price hikes combined with the rise in VAT to 21%, the removal of the energy cap and higher transport costs, which boosted the final price paid by consumers.
INS data show that in Romania coffee is about 25-26% more expensive than a year ago, and cocoa and coffee have grown faster than the food average.
Eggs went up by 14.6%, fresh fruit by 14.2%, and bread by almost 10%.
The tipping point was August 2025, when two simultaneous shocks — the liberalization of energy prices and the increase in the standard VAT rate from 19% to 21% — catapulted inflation from 5.7% in June to 9.9% in just two months. Since then, the annual rate has not fallen below 9%.
Eggs went up by 14.6%, fresh fruit by 14.2%, and bread by almost 10%. In March, vegetables added a monthly gain of 2.3%, extending seasonal pressures.
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), used for European comparisons, recorded an annual rate of 9.0% in March 2026 — up from 8.3% in February. The gap with the euro area average remains the largest in the EU.
The macroeconomic context remains difficult: the economy grew anemic in 2025, entered a technical recession, and the budget deficit remains very high.
