Article by Maria Olteanu – Published on Thursday, 02 April 2026, 13:19 / Updated on Thursday, 02 April 2026 13:20
Italy were beaten on penalties by Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Championship play-off final from this summer, but an unexpected conjuncture could give the “Squadra Azzurra” a place in the final tournament in the last hundred meters. But everything will depend on FIFA's decision.
Italy's national team suffered another huge disappointment, missing out on qualification for the North American World Cup after a dramatic setback to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The match played on Tuesday in Zenica ended in a draw, 1-1 after extra time, and the fate of the qualification was decided on penalty kicks.
However, there is still one last hope for the national team from Cizma to reach the World Cup, if the representative from Iran will finally decide not to participate in the final tournament, amid the conflict that broke out.
Italy may benefit if Iran withdraws from the World Cup
Pio Esposito and Bryan Cristante missed from the spot as the Bosnians converted all four of their attempts flawlessly to win 4-1. Thus, Italy misses out on a third consecutive World Cup, a historic underperformance, given that they have not won a knockout match since their triumph in 2006.
Prior to this failure, coach Gennaro Gattuso had declared last year that if his team did not qualify for the 2026 edition, he would “leave Italy”. Now, he and his players could paradoxically get one last chance, according to sportbible.com.
An escape hatch for Italy: the situation in Iran
A slim hope for Italy is linked to the geopolitical situation in Iran. The Middle Eastern national team has been drawn in Group G, along with Belgium, Egypt and New Zealand. The conflict in the region, which escalated after Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike, has thrown the team's participation in the final tournament into question.
Iran's sports minister said last month that his country would not participate in the final tournament “under any circumstances”, but the situation remains uncertain.
Although FIFA president Gianni Infantino confirmed this week that Iran would play matches in the United States as scheduled, a possible withdrawal would open the way for unexpected scenarios.
According to Article 6.2 of the FIFA regulations, if a team withdraws, it will be replaced “by a nominated alternative, often the second-placed team from the relevant qualifying play-off or the highest-ranked non-qualified team in that confederation”. In this case, the logical replacement would be the United Arab Emirates, the national team trained by Cosmin Olăroiu, which lost in the play-off stage to Iraq.
Italy, however, can also be considered an option to be taken into account, and the decision is to be taken by FIFA.
The regulation specifies that FIFA can make a final decision “at its sole discretion”. This detail leaves room for a hypothetical possibility: the world forum could choose another team, and Italy is the best-ranked FIFA national team among those that did not qualify.
Such a decision would undoubtedly generate tensions with associations on other continents, who would oppose the inclusion of a new European team in the final tournament set-up.
The speculation on this topic was fueled by Rene Meulensteen, former coach of the reserves of Manchester United and the current second-in-command of the Iraqi national team. “There are rumors that if FIFA makes the final decision, they could promote the highest FIFA ranked team to replace Iran, and that is Italy”he told talkSPORT.
Gattuso's promise was not kept
Before missing the World Cup, Gennaro Gattuso, who replaced Luciano Spalletti in 2025, was optimistic that the national team would succeed. “I think we have good players available. We have four or five who are among the top 10 in the world in their positions. I am convinced that the team has quality and we can achieve our goal,” he said last year.
Now, after his third consecutive qualification failure, Gattuso faces his own promise to “live away” from Italy if he fails to take the team to the World Cup. His fate and that of the Italian national team ironically depend not only on performance on the pitch but also on political and administrative decisions made thousands of kilometers away.
