Devastating drone strikes on major Russian ports in the Baltic region have sent oil flows plummeting to their lowest levels in more than a year, Bloomberg reports. As a result, weekly supplies from the region were the lowest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The article notes that repeated attacks on the export terminals of Ust-Luga and Primorsk in the Russian Federation led to storage tanks catching fire and stopping loading.
According to media reports, as a result, export volumes through ports fell by a third compared to the previous week. In monetary terms, this reduced Moscow’s income from oil exports by more than $1 billion, the material indicates.
Bloomberg notes that the attacks came as Russia ramped up exports to markets amid war in the Middle East and crude oil prices rose significantly. At the same time, Ukraine, according to the agency, is not reducing the intensity of attacks on Russian oil facilities, despite pressure from certain international partners, against the backdrop of the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Bloomberg, weekly crude oil flows from Russia fell by 1.75 million barrels per day to 2.32 million barrels per day. However, the impact on the four-week average supply was less dramatic: in the 28 days to March 29, the figure fell by 280 thousand barrels per day to 3.31 million barrels per day, which is the lowest level in the last two months.
The agency notes that the drop in flows coincided with an increase in supplies from tankers previously blocked at sea with Russian cargo. India's supply rose to nearly 1.7 million barrels per day this month from about 1.1 million in February after the United States issued permits to purchase Russian oil loaded before March 12.
The media writes that this contributed to the reduction of Russian oil reserves at sea, which reached approximately 140 million barrels in January. By Sunday, volume had fallen below 120 million barrels as supplies outpaced shipments.
Separately, the article noted that tankers with Russian oil are increasingly avoiding the North Sea and the English Channel after British statements about the possibility of inspections of vessels of the so-called shadow fleet. Because of this, routes from Baltic ports are changing – ships bypass the north of Scotland, which adds about two days to the route between the Baltic and the Mediterranean.
Bloomberg also cites data that in the week ending March 29, 22 tankers loaded 16.23 million barrels of Russian crude oil, down significantly from 28.5 million barrels the week before. Average daily supply for the period was 2.32 million barrels per day, minus about 1.75 million barrels per day, the lowest level since February 2025.
The drop in exports was also affected by a four-day downtime in the Pacific port of Kozmino, probably due to technical reasons, the agency noted.
Bloomberg concludes that Moscow's four-week average gross export value rose to $1.79 billion in the week to March 29, up from $1.7 billion previously, the highest level since May 2024. At the same time, during the week itself, exports amounted to approximately $1.44 billion, which is approximately $1 billion less than the week before.
Bloomberg writes that the drop in flows was only partially offset by higher prices. As for Russian oil prices, according to Argus Media analysts, they are growing for the fourth week in a row: Urals Baltic is $73.24 per barrel, Urals Black Sea is $71.53 per barrel, ESPO is $84.19 per barrel, and supplies to India are $97.69 per barrel.
Context
Since the beginning of 2024, Ukraine has intensified attacks on oil and gas facilities on the territory of the aggressor country, Russia. The head of the Ukrainian state, Vladimir Zelensky, stated that Ukraine has no choice but to strike in response to Russian air attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities.
Ust-Luga has come under attack from Ukraine several times this week. In particular, on the night of March 25, long-range drones of the Alpha Special Operations Center of the Security Service of Ukraine covered more than 900 km and hit one of the main ports in the Russian Federation. The intelligence service called this attack “a symbolic 'gift' to the enemy on SBU Day.” The attack was repeated on the night of March 26.
Also, drones of the SBU and defense forces hit another important oil export hub of the Russian Federation on the Baltic Sea – the port of Primorsk. As a result of these attacks, fires were recorded and several tanks were damaged.
The last time drones attacked fuel facilities in the Leningrad region was on the night of March 31. As Reuters calculated, this was the fifth attack in Ust-Luga in 10 days.
