– In recent years, we have often talked about shocks: the pandemic, inflation, the energy crisis, Russian aggression – said Adam Glapiński, president of the National Bank of Poland, during the opening speech of this year's Banking Forum, which took place at the end of February.
He recalled that three years ago, the price dynamics at its peak exceeded 18%. and some experts “had Cassandra visions.”
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President Glapiński announces stabilization of inflation
— Today the situation is much more comfortable. The Polish economy is developing rapidly, very quickly compared to Europe, the GDP dynamics reaches 4%. Inflation has been consistent with the NBP target for half a year. The flash reading for January is 2.2%, below the midpoint of our inflation target of 2.5%.. So we have high growth and low inflation, which is a rare phenomenon occurring at the same time and will not last forever, said Prof. Glapiński.
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He added that the decline in inflation was supported by the easing of shocks, but the monetary policy of the National Bank of Poland was of key importance. He recalled that, according to the report of the International Monetary Fund, the reduction of inflation in Poland was achieved with limited costs in the form of deterioration of economic activity and the labor market.
– All forecasts show that stabilization of inflation in Poland in the NBP target – i.e. 2.5 percent. +/- 1 percentage point — it has to be durable. The latest NBP macroeconomic projection, which will be presented on the occasion of the Monetary Policy Council meeting in early March, indicates that inflation until the end of this year, maybe even next year, will be within the NBP's target, and economic growth will remain solid. However, for this to happen, NBP must continue to pursue prudent and difficult monetary policy, said Adam Glapiński.
He recalled that last year the Monetary Policy Council reduced rates by a total of 1.75 percentage points, which translates into greater availability of credit and thus supports the growth of lending.
Banks should increase financing of the Polish economy
— You, as the banking sector, you must support the Polish economy even better than before – the President of the National Bank of Poland asked the bank representatives.
He added that he was satisfied with the data on the acceleration of lending to enterprises, but stated that the ratio of these loans to GDP still remained below the average of the EU and countries in the region.
The reason indicated – as shown by NBP research – was the limited demand of companies for loans. He added that the current high capital of banks allows for a simultaneous increase in corporate lending and state financing (in the form of treasury bonds). He emphasized that banks should help modernize the Polish economy.
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The President of NBP recalled that in 2025, the net profit of the Polish banking sector amounted to PLN 48 billion, and the average return on capital exceeded the EU median. He emphasized that from the NBP's point of view, it is not the banks' results themselves that are important, but – from the macroprudential point of view – their ability to build capital, which translates into the ability to finance the economy and absorb costs in the event of a crisis. He added that retained earnings help with this and banks' capital ratios more than meet the requirements in this regard.
The President noted with satisfaction that banks used the period of high interest rates and profits to largely cover the legal risk related to foreign currency mortgages. According to NBP analyses, banks incurred PLN 100 billion of costs in this respect. He assessed that this level was high enough that any further provisions would not pose a threat to banks.
The head of the Polish central bank assessed that legal risk began to spread to other areas, and “law firms are looking for new markets for their services, which are incredibly extensive.” He pointed to attempts to undermine WIBOR and the sanction of free credit. So far, this phenomenon has not burdened banks with high costs, but according to President Glapiński, it requires careful monitoring. — Appropriate legislative solutions will help reduce this uncertainty, without prejudice to the consumer. Together with KSF, we try to support such solutions, including: in the scope of the Consumer Credit Act – said Adam Glapiński.
He added that in the coming years, banks' profitability should remain at a satisfactory level, allowing for capital building and simultaneous payment of dividends to shareholders, including: State Treasury and small shareholders.
“We are on the eve of enormous changes”
— Over 35 years, the Polish economy has undergone a huge transformation. The banking sector was a particularly important element of modernization, although there were many difficult moments. Over the years, the sector has not experienced a serious crisis, thanks to good management of banks and good cooperation with governments. More developed and more bureaucratic countries have not achieved this – said prof. Glapiński.
— The banking sector did not constitute a burden on public finances. The state did not have to support the banking sector at the expense of taxpayers or increased debt. Even during the crisis of 2007-2009. In turn, the governments of many Western countries were forced to spend huge amounts of money to save their banks, said the president.
He assessed that a very conservative supervisory policy contributed to this. — The entire financial safety net in the country is prudent and safe, but it also has its drawbacks, but times are turbulent, he noted. He pointed out that changes in global finances are ongoing, and what has happened so far has been “preamble and fun.”
— We are on the eve of enormous changes in global finances, the world is changing enormously, the changes will be rapid and a new monetary and financial order will emerge from it. We – sticking to the Western hemisphere – will find our place in it, said the president, suggesting that this is why the Polish central bank is increasing gold resources.
