Inflation in February 2026 was 2.1 percent. The average price level of consumer goods and services increased by this amount compared to February 2025.
This is a good result, especially if we remember the years 2022-2023, when prices increased at a rate of several percent.
However, there are many indications that in March the price growth rate will accelerate rapidly. “An inflation rollercoaster lies ahead of us,” say mBank economists.
“In March, inflation will rise to above 3% only to decline by nearly 1 percentage point in April as a result of the introduction of CPN by the government,” we read.
Fuel prices will drive up inflation
The ending month was marked by rising fuel prices. They have reached a level we have not seen since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. This cannot have an impact on inflation.
However, the program of fuel price reductions announced by the government through VAT and excise tax cuts will mean that the situation should stabilize in April.
See also: Surprising comments from economists after inflation data. It will get worse
“We estimate that the VAT and excise duty reduction will reduce inflation in April by approximately 0.9 percentage points, and on an average annual basis (assuming that the solutions remain in force throughout the year) by approximately 0.5 percentage points.” – said experts from the Economic Analysis Department of PKO BP.
Santander analysts have a similar opinion. “The increase in fuel prices at gas stations in March will amount to approximately 15% on average, and the introduction of government proposals may reverse most of this increase,” said Santander Bank Polska economists on Friday.
There are many indications that the inflation spike will last a month. Of course, provided that there is no further escalation in the Middle East.
