Trump is rapidly losing popularity in the polls. Already 62 percent Americans reject his inflation policies. Moreover, even Republican strongholds are beginning to shake.
In 2022, Trump easily won Florida, but now the Republican Party is losing seats there – even in the constituency around Mar-a-Lago, the president's electoral home.
These elections send an important signal, but they are only the tip of the iceberg. Even conservative voices are already warning Republicans of a “massacre” during the midterm elections. The fact that the advantage of the president's supporters is shrinking even in their strongholds shows one thing. What may ultimately bring Trump down are the emptying wallets of his voters.
The defeat in Florida set off alarms in the Republican Party. According to the average of polls, the president only gets about 40 percent. support, which means a drop of about 20 points since the beginning of his presidency. The latest problem for Trump is the war with Iran and its impact on gasoline prices in the US.
Historically, the situation ahead of the November midterm elections does not look favorable for Trump. It usually happens that if the president's support drops below approximately 45 percent, his party loses a huge number of seats in the Senate and House of Representatives.
In 2010, Obama lost as many as 63 seats in the House of Representatives, and Trump himself lost 40 in 2018.
Barack ObamaPhoto by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP / AFP
The logic behind this pattern is simple: midterm elections are when voters typically show their dissatisfaction.
According to Ipsos YouGov and Quinnipiac University polls, Democrats currently have at least a three percent advantage in the midterm elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 in the Senate are up for election in November.
Currently, the situation is very even. Republicans currently maintain control of the House of Representatives with a majority of just three seats. Democrats will need four wins to regain the majority — even if they have to defend two of their own seats. In other words: All it takes is a minimal change — and Trump's power structure will begin to crumble.
The current dynamics indeed point to such a scenario. In midterm elections, gubernatorial elections and local votes, Democrats have repeatedly outperformed since 2025 — even in states like Iowa and Louisiana that clearly went for Trump in 2024.
Moreover, Trump himself does not appear on the ballot. This is what can make the difference. His most loyal group of voters — highly mobilized, personally attached Trump supporters — are much less likely to show up in midterm elections, as history shows.
All this makes the current situation more and more reminiscent of 2018, when Democrats won 41 seats and regained the majority in the House of Representatives. Many analysts are already talking about a possible “blue wave” again.
“Trump will lose room for maneuver”
But Democrats' options have their limits, starting with the number of registered voters. In Florida alone, Republicans have about 1.5 million more registered voters than Democrats.
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Additionally, Republicans' advantages include much better financing – more donations, more aggressive campaigns and more effective mobilization. Even in the current crisis, they remain ahead on a key issue: the economy. 38 percent respondents trust their competences, and only 34 percent —Democrats. Dissatisfaction with Trump's actions does not automatically mean trust in the opposition.
There is one more factor – and this one may prove decisive: institutional power. With the “Save America Act” currently being pushed through, Trump is trying to change the rules of the game on his own. In the future, voters will have to present documents such as a passport or birth certificate when registering, and proof of identity when voting.
Trump also wants to limit postal voting. Those who will be particularly affected will be poorer voters, minorities and young people – traditional Democratic voters.
Above all, however, the situation in the Senate remains risky for Democrats. To win a majority there, they need to take several Republican states – such as North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska. These are three states that clearly voted for Trump in 2024, some by double-digit margins.
This is where the real significance of these midterm elections lies. If Democrats win the House of Representatives, they will be able to block Trump's agenda, establish investigative commissions and exert pressure through subpoenas to appear before the commission.
If the Republicans additionally lose the Senate, Trump will practically lose room for maneuver and will be left without the ability to legislate. But if Republicans hold both houses — despite Trump's only 40 percent approval rating — it will be a spectacular achievement.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
